771 FXUS63 KLMK 080234 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 934 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019 .Forecast Update... Issued at 934 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019 Went ahead and cancelled the NW portions of both the Flood Watch and the Wind Advisory. It has stopped raining along and north of a Morgantown to Elizabethtown to New Castle, KY line so there is no longer a need for the Flood Watch. That being said, a few areas of standing water near low water crossings will likely hang around into the overnight. Use caution if traveling and never drive into water! Otherwise, will leave the Flood Watch going where it is still raining for another 3 to 4 hours. Also let the Wind Advisory go for areas along and north of that same line as gusts are mostly letting up a little 2 to 3 hours after frontal passage. There could still be some gusts up around 35 mph at times for the next several hours, but overall the threat for gusts over 40 mph is quickly diminishing. Again, will leave the rest of the Wind Advisory alone for another few hours. Wanted to address the other concern about lingering wet roads freezing as temps drop into the teens and 20s by dawn. Was watching a web cam up near Huntingburg, IN all evening and noted that it took about 2-3 hours after the rain to stop for the wind to completely dry the pavement. So, think that the threat for lingering slick spots should be pretty limited due to the wind and dry air making pretty quick work of damp roadways. The only real concern is with any standing puddles that could be a little tougher to eradicate before it freezes. For now, will remain vigilant but not overly concerned with the threat for slick spots by dawn. Nevertheless, folks should use some caution for the morning commute. Previous Update... Issued at 746 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019 The strong cold front has pushed east of the I-65 corridor and we are seeing a 10-15 degree drop in about 15-20 minutes behind it. In addition, winds are gusting in the 35-45 mph range behind the front, with SDF clocking a peak wind of 44 mph a bit ago. Will keep the Wind Advisory going through the evening hours to get the front through the area. Widespread light to occasionally moderate rain also continues along and behind the front, however this is also pushing slowly east with time. Overall, expect about a 3-4 hour lag between frontal passage and the end of the light rain. Very sharp temp gradient exists as the Lake Cumberland area remains in the low 70s, while Huntingburg has found it's way into the upper 30s! Could still see some flakes flying on the back side of the precipitation shield, but no accums expected as surface temps will likely lag behind air temps due to the recent mild stretch of weather. Also not overly concerned about slick spots on roadways toward dawn as a several hour stretch of gusty and dry conditions should work to dry surfaces before temps really plummet below freezing. Suppose a few slick spots could be around where water has puddled, but don't expect it to be an issue. Still monitoring some of the areas up in southern IN that had Flood Advisories and Warnings from earlier. Rain has stopped and will be calling shortly to see if problems have subsided to let the advisories/warnings go. Will also be continuing to keep an eye on area rivers as they continue to rise. Finally, did have to issue a Special Weather Statement for a thin line of convection down near Lake Cumberland where the slightest of instability gradients still exists ahead of the cold front. Seeing some pretty good rainfall rates down there, albeit brief. This could cause ponding of water on roadways and minor nuisance flooding, but should be too short-lived for any advisory or warning product. Will keep an eye on these cells over the next half hour to 1 hour. Overall, everything looks on track and will be looking for opportunities late this evening to dial back advisories and headlines as things wind down. Goodbye mild weather...it was a nice run! && .Short Term...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 250 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019 Watching for stronger storms this afternoon and evening, then much colder air will move into the region to close the work week. Line of storms that formed earlier is in the process of weakening. Noteworthy however is the lack of leading stratiform ahead of it as well as the warm air it is moving into. We have had some record highs ahead of this line. Consequently, we are seeing model forecast soundings show a narrow line of surface-based CAPE as well as plenty of shear. Still think we could see either new development, in the form of spinning low-topped showers or perhaps a reinvigoration of the line, as per the 12Z NamNEST solution or 16Z HRRR run, mainly south of I-64 and east of current convective line. Outside of that severe weather threat, we are seeing winds gusting in the 30-45 mph range. We likely will see this continue for a few hours behind the frontal passage tonight. Not planning any changes to the current wind advisory. Cold air will blast into the area overnight, with lows crashing into the low to mid 20s for many locations, probably even the teens in southern IN. Highs Friday, likely under good insolation, should stay in the 25-30 degree range for southern Indiana and 28-33 for many parts of central Kentucky. .Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 301 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019 ...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL FLOODING POSSIBLE... =================================== Friday Night through Saturday Night =================================== Surface high pressure is forecast to build into the region Friday evening and into the day on Saturday. Combination of clear skies and light winds will result in a decent radiational cooling event. Lows Saturday morning should drop into the 10-15 degree range over southern Indiana and the northern half of KY. Across southern KY, lows of 15-19 are expected. High pressure will result in mainly sunny skies on Saturday but temperatures will remain cold. Highs of 35-40 look likely across the region. By Saturday night, we'll see winds shift from the east to the southeast and low-level isentropic lift will likely get underway. Cloud cover is likely to increase throughout the night and temperatures are not expected to drop as much. Current data suggests that lows in the 20-25 degree range are likely by sunrise Sunday. =================================== Sunday through Thursday =================================== Moving along into Sunday, the next weather system will make a move toward the Ohio Valley Sunday morning. Overall trend in the models is for precipitation to break out across the region from southwest to northeast by mid-late morning. This is a little slower than in previous model runs. Low-level temps may be marginally cold enough initially to support a wintry mix, but as low-level warm air advection scheme becomes increasingly stronger, temps will warm by early afternoon resulting in plain rain. Highs Sunday afternoon will likely warm into the upper 30s to the lower 40s. A few upper 40s will be possible along the KY/TN border region. Combination of strong isentropic upglide along with a persistent fetch of Gulf moisture should keep widespread rainfall in place across the region Sunday night. Temps may cool into the mid 30s by early Monday morning, but model proximity soundings suggest that rain will be the dominant precipitation type. However, there is a chance that some low-level cold air may work into our northern row of southern IN counties resulting in a mix or change over to some snow. For Monday and Tuesday, overall upper air pattern looks to take on a similar setup to what we saw late last week with a persistent southwest flow aloft with much of the Ohio Valley located in a broad baroclinic zone. Southern IN and central KY are likely to remain within the warm sector of the zone resulting in additional rainfall. Several perturbations will move through the region bringing periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches look likely with localized higher amounts possible. Given saturated soil conditions, this will lead to additional localized flooding issues in some areas. The larger story would be that this additional runoff would go right into our rivers which will simply result in a longer period of flooding with some rivers seeing additional rises into higher flood categories. Highs Monday look to warm into the mid-upper 40 across southern IN and northern KY while southern KY sees temps in the lower 50s. Most locations should warm into the 50s/60s on Tuesday when the warm advection scheme is maximized. By Wednesday, surface frontal boundary looks to shunt eastward taking the rainfall away from the region. A cooler airmass will work back into the region with dry conditions expected through Thursday. Highs on Wednesday look to range from 40-45 across the north with mid-upper 40s across the south. Slightly warmer readings are expected on Thursday. Overnight lows through the period will be in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Updated at 647 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019 A strong cold front is pushing through our area at this hour. It has already passed HNB and will pass through SDF/BWG shortly after 7 PM EST. LEX should expect passage around 9 or 10 PM EST. Expect winds to shift to a WNW component around 20 mph and gusting up around 35 mph for a few hours after frontal passage. Gusty WNW winds will then continue through much of the overnight, although slowly backing off more in the 20-30 mph range for gusts. In addition to the gusty winds, light to occasionally moderate rain will continue at BWG/SDF/LEX for a few more hours. Expect the rain to end at SDF/BWG around 10 or 11 PM EST, and LEX around 1 AM EST. Low ceilings in the low MVFR range (below fuel alternate) will settle in behind the frontal passage, with perhaps some brief IFR also. Cold dry air quickly spills in behind the front and should begin to scatter out the low level moisture before sunrise. This will bring a return to VFR, but gusty W wind will continue around 20 mph through near the end of this cycle. Skies should be VFR for the daylight hours of Friday. && .Climate... Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019 Listed below are the record highs and forecasts for today. Site Rec. (Yr) Fore. SDF 69 (1925) 70** LEX 67 (1925) 70** BWG 71 (1931) 73** FFT 69 (1925) 69** **Record already broken or tied today. Listed below are the record warm lows and forecasts/obs for today. The caveat is that a cold front will move through before midnight, likely pulling readings down below record levels. LEX stands the best chance to break their record, should the timing of the frontal passage slow down. Site Rec. (Yr) Fore. SDF 55 (2017*) 39 LEX 54 (2017) 43 BWG 52 (2017*) 35 FFT 56 (2017) 40 In addition to the warmth, a very moist airmass over the region likely will bring record rainfall. Below are the record rainfall amounts for today for each of our climate sites. Site 2/7 Record (Year) SDF 1.09" (1890) LEX 1.30" (1890) BWG 1.05" (1933) FFT 0.87" (2018) && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...Flood Watch until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Friday for KYZ035>037- 039>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-070>078-081-082. Wind Advisory until midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight for KYZ035>037-039>043-045>049-053>057-062>067-070>078-081-082. && $$ Update...BJS Short Term...RJS Long Term...MJ Aviation...BJS Climate...RJS