244 
FXUS64 KMAF 050425
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1025 PM CST Mon Feb 4 2019

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Satellite shows clouds are increasing from the west and will 
persist through the forecast, lowering to 12-15KFT Tue PM.
Satellite also shows low clouds/fog edging into the Lower Trans 
Pecos and may approach/near MAF after 09Z/Tue. We will leave out
of forecast for now. Otherwise SW winds will pick up around 18Z, 
but the presence of clouds could delay the wind. Gust of 20-30kts 
are possible at most sites. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 550 PM CST Mon Feb 4 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
The only concern for this forecast period is gusty winds tomorrow
at all terminals except at PEQ. Currently, VFR conditions are 
present and will continue across the area. West southwest winds 
are dropping off and will remain low tonight. Expect winds to pick
up around 11 AM MST/12 PM CST or so and later for the southern 
terminals tomorrow. PEQ could see gusty winds, but similar to 
today, expect it will be a brief period of time.

AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 133 PM CST Mon Feb 4 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Next upper low will work down the West Coast today then move into 
the Great Basin Tuesday before swinging into AZ and NM Wednesday.
This trough swings across the Panhandle Thursday then lifts NE. Weak 
ridging builds in behind it before the next upper trough comes 
ashore Saturday.

Have had abundant mid and high clouds flowing up from the SW but has 
not slowed temperatures from quickly climbing today... airmass a 
little dryer with dewpts mainly in the 30s and 40s. Temps stay 
unseasonably warm with highs in the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. A 
Pacific front blows through Wednesday with a west wind in its wake 
and a cold front backdoors into the area late Thursday.  Friday and 
Saturday will be colder but readings will be back to normal by 
Sunday. 

Mid week rain chances not looking very favorable... will have to 
contend with a Pacific front trying to blow moisture out of the 
area.  Models have significantly backed off pops and qpf... for now 
will leave slight chance pops in Wednesday night for the Eastern 
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos but its looking as most rain 
will be east of the area.

Could see another high wind event across the Guadalupe Mountains on 
Wednesday... but since only marginal will not issue a watch at this 
time and will make sure later models continue to point toward this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     47  75  50  74 /   0   0  10  10 
Carlsbad                       47  70  49  69 /   0   0   0  10 
Dryden                         50  81  52  80 /   0   0  10   0 
Fort Stockton                  52  79  53  76 /   0   0  10  10 
Guadalupe Pass                 47  62  43  59 /   0   0  10  10 
Hobbs                          46  69  45  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                          37  68  39  68 /   0   0  10  20 
Midland Intl Airport           48  75  50  73 /   0   0  10  10 
Odessa                         47  75  49  73 /   0   0  10  10 
Wink                           47  77  49  74 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$