542 
FXUS64 KFWD 032355
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
555 PM CST Sun Feb 3 2019


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/

A strong surface low will track eastward across Kansas overnight,
then into the Midwest on Monday. This pattern will continue to 
induce a strong surface pressure gradient over North Central Texas
through at least 12z Monday, producing sustained southerly flow 
of around 13-17 knots. As a prefrontal trough and cold front drop 
southward into Oklahoma Monday, winds at the Metroplex TAF sites 
will veer to 230-250 degrees from 14-20z, averaging speeds of 10 
knots. The front to our north will stall out prior to reaching the
Red River, and southerly flow will persist at all TAF sites 
through Wednesday night. 

Otherwise, the Interstate 35 corridor will represent a rough
dividing line between VFR and MVFR ceiling conditions through
daybreak Monday. At most TAF sites, VFR skies will prevail 
through the period, with scattered 025-030 clouds lingering prior
to 06z. One exception will be KACT, where some BKN010-015 
ceilings will redevelop around 10z, accompanied by some patchy 
MVFR fog. These clouds should mix out by 16z, yielding VFR 
conditions. 

Some occasional MVFR ceilings should also develop at 
KDAL this evening, but believe these conditions will diminish 
later tonight as the slightly drier air southwest of the 
Metroplex works into the KDAL area. This will be a trend that will
need to be monitored this evening for possible amendments.  

Bradshaw

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 259 PM CST Sun Feb 3 2019/
/Through Tonight/

An upper level disturbance over Colorado and Wyoming will race
east across the Plains tonight, dragging a surface low and a cold
front along with it. Low level winds across North and Central
Texas will continue to veer as a result, which will keep the
persistent deck of low clouds farther east than the past few 
nights. This will split the CWA between overcast conditions 
tonight across the southeast half of the region, with generally 
clear skies expected across the northwest half, the edge being 
somewhere near a Paris to Lampasas line. The warmest weather will
in turn be beneath the clouds where low temps in the low 60s are
expected. Mid and upper 50s lows will likely occur elsewhere,
which is still well above normal for February. Patchy fog and
drizzle can also be expected where the overcast conditions and
best region of low level moisture will exist. Otherwise, south- 
southwest winds in the 10 to 15 MPH range can be expected area- 
wide.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 259 PM CST Sun Feb 3 2019/
/Monday through Sunday/

A springlike weather pattern will continue to start the work week
with strong low level warm/moist advection ahead of an approaching
low pressure system. Abundant moisture generally below 850 mb will
keep abundant clouds in place along with patchy fog and drizzle
both Monday and Tuesday morning,especially across the southeast
zones. A cap of warm air aloft and a lack of any strong synoptic
forcing should prevent any measurable rain from developing. High
temperatures both Monday and Tuesday will be mainly in the 70s,
except for the western half of the region where low 80s will be
likely due to a bit of afternoon sun and some adiabatic warming.
Lows Monday night will also be mild for early February with mid
50s to lower 60s. 

The deep upper trough will swing through the Great Basin and
Desert Southwest on Wednesday, increasing large scale lift across
the region. Although a mid level cap will remain in place, 
scattered showers will likely develop through the day, especially 
across the eastern half of the region where low level moisture 
will be most abundant. Clouds will also be numerous on Wednesday,
keeping high temperatures from warming into the 80s, but it will 
still be mild with highs in the lower and middle 70s.

Precipitation chances will increase Wednesday night with 
increasing large scale lift and the arrival of a prefrontal 
trough. Some isolated thunderstorms will also be possible as the 
mid levels of the atmosphere destabilize. The upper trough axis 
will translate east across the region Thursday, allowing a strong
cold front to surge southward. Numerous showers and isolated 
thunderstorms will accompany the passing upper trough and cold 
front. Most locations will see some precipitation, but amounts 
should be fairly light since the upper trough will remain open and
progressive and drier and much colder air will quickly fill in 
behind the front. High temperatures Thursday will likely occur in 
the morning with falling temperatures in the afternoon.

Precipitation will end across the entire region Thursday evening 
as large scale subsidence increases and surface high pressure 
builds southward through the Central and Southern Plains. Some
earlier model runs of the GFS were indicating some lingering 
stratiform precip Friday morning with some potential for light
freezing rain, but the 12Z run is now in line with the ECMWF and
ends all precipitation before temperatures fall below freezing.  
Temperatures by sunrise Friday will range from the upper 20s near
the Red River to the lower 40s across the southeast with mainly
30s elsewhere. Highs Friday will be quite cool (40s) even though 
there will be abundant sun. It will also be a bit breezy which
will make it feel even cooler.

Cold air advection will wane Friday night/Saturday in response to
another developing low pressure system on the West Coast. However,
warm air advection will not take shape until Saturday night, 
therefore, temperatures will remain below seasonal normals Friday 
night and Saturday. A few showers will also be possible Friday 
night and Saturday, mainly across Central Texas, as the front 
begins to lift back to the north. Rain chances will increase 
Sunday with the arrival of another upper trough and Pacific cold 
front. 

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    59  79  60  75  64 /   0   0   5  10  10 
Waco                60  78  61  74  64 /   0   5   5  20  10 
Paris               60  75  58  72  63 /   0   5  10  10  30 
Denton              56  78  58  75  63 /   0   0   5  10  10 
McKinney            58  77  59  73  63 /   0   0  10  10  20 
Dallas              59  80  62  75  65 /   0   0   5  10  10 
Terrell             61  77  61  73  64 /   0   0  10  10  20 
Corsicana           63  77  61  74  65 /   0   0   5  20  10 
Temple              61  78  60  74  63 /   0   5   5  20  10 
Mineral Wells       54  81  57  77  61 /   0   0   5  10  10 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$