542 FXUS64 KFWD 032355 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 555 PM CST Sun Feb 3 2019 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFs/ A strong surface low will track eastward across Kansas overnight, then into the Midwest on Monday. This pattern will continue to induce a strong surface pressure gradient over North Central Texas through at least 12z Monday, producing sustained southerly flow of around 13-17 knots. As a prefrontal trough and cold front drop southward into Oklahoma Monday, winds at the Metroplex TAF sites will veer to 230-250 degrees from 14-20z, averaging speeds of 10 knots. The front to our north will stall out prior to reaching the Red River, and southerly flow will persist at all TAF sites through Wednesday night. Otherwise, the Interstate 35 corridor will represent a rough dividing line between VFR and MVFR ceiling conditions through daybreak Monday. At most TAF sites, VFR skies will prevail through the period, with scattered 025-030 clouds lingering prior to 06z. One exception will be KACT, where some BKN010-015 ceilings will redevelop around 10z, accompanied by some patchy MVFR fog. These clouds should mix out by 16z, yielding VFR conditions. Some occasional MVFR ceilings should also develop at KDAL this evening, but believe these conditions will diminish later tonight as the slightly drier air southwest of the Metroplex works into the KDAL area. This will be a trend that will need to be monitored this evening for possible amendments. Bradshaw && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 259 PM CST Sun Feb 3 2019/ /Through Tonight/ An upper level disturbance over Colorado and Wyoming will race east across the Plains tonight, dragging a surface low and a cold front along with it. Low level winds across North and Central Texas will continue to veer as a result, which will keep the persistent deck of low clouds farther east than the past few nights. This will split the CWA between overcast conditions tonight across the southeast half of the region, with generally clear skies expected across the northwest half, the edge being somewhere near a Paris to Lampasas line. The warmest weather will in turn be beneath the clouds where low temps in the low 60s are expected. Mid and upper 50s lows will likely occur elsewhere, which is still well above normal for February. Patchy fog and drizzle can also be expected where the overcast conditions and best region of low level moisture will exist. Otherwise, south- southwest winds in the 10 to 15 MPH range can be expected area- wide. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 259 PM CST Sun Feb 3 2019/ /Monday through Sunday/ A springlike weather pattern will continue to start the work week with strong low level warm/moist advection ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Abundant moisture generally below 850 mb will keep abundant clouds in place along with patchy fog and drizzle both Monday and Tuesday morning,especially across the southeast zones. A cap of warm air aloft and a lack of any strong synoptic forcing should prevent any measurable rain from developing. High temperatures both Monday and Tuesday will be mainly in the 70s, except for the western half of the region where low 80s will be likely due to a bit of afternoon sun and some adiabatic warming. Lows Monday night will also be mild for early February with mid 50s to lower 60s. The deep upper trough will swing through the Great Basin and Desert Southwest on Wednesday, increasing large scale lift across the region. Although a mid level cap will remain in place, scattered showers will likely develop through the day, especially across the eastern half of the region where low level moisture will be most abundant. Clouds will also be numerous on Wednesday, keeping high temperatures from warming into the 80s, but it will still be mild with highs in the lower and middle 70s. Precipitation chances will increase Wednesday night with increasing large scale lift and the arrival of a prefrontal trough. Some isolated thunderstorms will also be possible as the mid levels of the atmosphere destabilize. The upper trough axis will translate east across the region Thursday, allowing a strong cold front to surge southward. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany the passing upper trough and cold front. Most locations will see some precipitation, but amounts should be fairly light since the upper trough will remain open and progressive and drier and much colder air will quickly fill in behind the front. High temperatures Thursday will likely occur in the morning with falling temperatures in the afternoon. Precipitation will end across the entire region Thursday evening as large scale subsidence increases and surface high pressure builds southward through the Central and Southern Plains. Some earlier model runs of the GFS were indicating some lingering stratiform precip Friday morning with some potential for light freezing rain, but the 12Z run is now in line with the ECMWF and ends all precipitation before temperatures fall below freezing. Temperatures by sunrise Friday will range from the upper 20s near the Red River to the lower 40s across the southeast with mainly 30s elsewhere. Highs Friday will be quite cool (40s) even though there will be abundant sun. It will also be a bit breezy which will make it feel even cooler. Cold air advection will wane Friday night/Saturday in response to another developing low pressure system on the West Coast. However, warm air advection will not take shape until Saturday night, therefore, temperatures will remain below seasonal normals Friday night and Saturday. A few showers will also be possible Friday night and Saturday, mainly across Central Texas, as the front begins to lift back to the north. Rain chances will increase Sunday with the arrival of another upper trough and Pacific cold front. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 59 79 60 75 64 / 0 0 5 10 10 Waco 60 78 61 74 64 / 0 5 5 20 10 Paris 60 75 58 72 63 / 0 5 10 10 30 Denton 56 78 58 75 63 / 0 0 5 10 10 McKinney 58 77 59 73 63 / 0 0 10 10 20 Dallas 59 80 62 75 65 / 0 0 5 10 10 Terrell 61 77 61 73 64 / 0 0 10 10 20 Corsicana 63 77 61 74 65 / 0 0 5 20 10 Temple 61 78 60 74 63 / 0 5 5 20 10 Mineral Wells 54 81 57 77 61 / 0 0 5 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$