951 
FXUS63 KMQT 022037
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
337 PM EST Sat Feb 2 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 337 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2019

Still looking at freezing drizzle with moist southerly flow tonight. 
Greatest coverage and amounts (up to a tenth of an inch) are 
expected across all but the Keweenaw where only a light glaze is 
expected. The main hazard will be slippery conditions on primarily 
untreated roads. Confidence has increased in ice accumulation over 
the W, so issued an additional Winter Weather Advisory there for 
tonight into Sun. While most of the precip should exit the W and 
central U.P. by Sun afternoon, freezing drizzle lingers over the E, 
but additional impacts should be minimal. Highs will mainly be in 
the 30s on Sun.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2019

Upper air pattern will have a shortwave in the central Rockies 00z 
Mon that will move into the northern plains Sun night and into the 
upper Great Lakes on Mon. Nam shows some deeper moisture and 850-500 
mb q-vector convergence moving through on Mon. Pcpn with this next 
system does not look to get going until late Sun night and then it 
looks messy with some freezing rain, snow, sleet and rain with the 
pcpn changing over to all snow Mon evening in the eastern cwa. Looks 
like there could be across the west half up to 6 inches of snow, a 
quarter inch of ice across the east half of the cwa. Confidence 
though is still too low to put out a watch at this time as the track 
of this system has shifted a bit further north with this run from 
the previous run. Also, with a mixed pcpn event happening in the 
earlier forecast periods, will continue with the special weather 
statement route for now. Otherwise, not real big changes to the 
going forecast. 

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough in the 
western U.S. with a broad and flat 500 mb ridge across the sern U.S. 
12z Wed. Cold air is across the northern U.S. 12z Wed. A shortwave 
over the Canadian and northern Rockies 12z Wed heads southeast into 
the northern plains 12z Thu and into the Great Lakes region 12z Fri. 
This system for Thu through Fri brings in some colder air again with 
it. The cold air starts to modify on Sat as it slowly moves back 
northeast. Temperatures look to be below normal for this forecast 
period and could be a good chance for another winter storm for Thu 
into Fri over the area.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2019

Conditions will deteriorate starting this evening as moist air 
pushing in from the south, leading to fog and freezing drizzle. 
Visibilities may need to be dropped further, but for now went with 
visibilities around a mile at worst.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 337 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2019

Winds stay below gales until Monday when northeasterly gales of 35 
to 40 knots develop on the backside of a low moving through the 
Upper Great Lakes. Gales subside by Tuesday morning. Where the lake 
is ice free, heavy freezing spray will continue into tonight, before 
subsiding this weekend as temperatures moderate. The heavy freezing 
spray makes a return early next week.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening 
     to 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ Sunday for MIZ002-004-009-010-084.

  Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 1 PM EST 
     /noon CST/ Sunday for MIZ005>007-011>014-085.

Lake Superior...
  Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this 
     evening for LSZ162-240>251-263>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Titus
MARINE...Titus