951 FXUS63 KMQT 022037 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 337 PM EST Sat Feb 2 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 337 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2019 Still looking at freezing drizzle with moist southerly flow tonight. Greatest coverage and amounts (up to a tenth of an inch) are expected across all but the Keweenaw where only a light glaze is expected. The main hazard will be slippery conditions on primarily untreated roads. Confidence has increased in ice accumulation over the W, so issued an additional Winter Weather Advisory there for tonight into Sun. While most of the precip should exit the W and central U.P. by Sun afternoon, freezing drizzle lingers over the E, but additional impacts should be minimal. Highs will mainly be in the 30s on Sun. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 301 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2019 Upper air pattern will have a shortwave in the central Rockies 00z Mon that will move into the northern plains Sun night and into the upper Great Lakes on Mon. Nam shows some deeper moisture and 850-500 mb q-vector convergence moving through on Mon. Pcpn with this next system does not look to get going until late Sun night and then it looks messy with some freezing rain, snow, sleet and rain with the pcpn changing over to all snow Mon evening in the eastern cwa. Looks like there could be across the west half up to 6 inches of snow, a quarter inch of ice across the east half of the cwa. Confidence though is still too low to put out a watch at this time as the track of this system has shifted a bit further north with this run from the previous run. Also, with a mixed pcpn event happening in the earlier forecast periods, will continue with the special weather statement route for now. Otherwise, not real big changes to the going forecast. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a deep 500 mb trough in the western U.S. with a broad and flat 500 mb ridge across the sern U.S. 12z Wed. Cold air is across the northern U.S. 12z Wed. A shortwave over the Canadian and northern Rockies 12z Wed heads southeast into the northern plains 12z Thu and into the Great Lakes region 12z Fri. This system for Thu through Fri brings in some colder air again with it. The cold air starts to modify on Sat as it slowly moves back northeast. Temperatures look to be below normal for this forecast period and could be a good chance for another winter storm for Thu into Fri over the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1242 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2019 Conditions will deteriorate starting this evening as moist air pushing in from the south, leading to fog and freezing drizzle. Visibilities may need to be dropped further, but for now went with visibilities around a mile at worst. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 337 PM EST SAT FEB 2 2019 Winds stay below gales until Monday when northeasterly gales of 35 to 40 knots develop on the backside of a low moving through the Upper Great Lakes. Gales subside by Tuesday morning. Where the lake is ice free, heavy freezing spray will continue into tonight, before subsiding this weekend as temperatures moderate. The heavy freezing spray makes a return early next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening to 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ Sunday for MIZ002-004-009-010-084. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Sunday for MIZ005>007-011>014-085. Lake Superior... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for LSZ162-240>251-263>267. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Titus MARINE...Titus