422 
FXUS65 KABQ 011123 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
423 AM MST Fri Feb 1 2019

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A weakening upper level storm system approaching NM from the west is
increasing cloud cover from SW to NE this morning. Cloud bases will
continue to lower as the system nears and crosses NM today. A few 
rain and high elevation snow showers will be possible mainly across 
the southwest and south central mountains today. Localized MVFR 
cigs/vsbys and mountain obscurations are possible.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MST Fri Feb 1 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will be more noticeable today, and are expected to bring 
isolated to scattered light showers and a few brief thunderstorms to 
the Gila and South Central Mountains today and tonight. Saturday 
will see another round of clouds overall and isolated showers near 
the Arizona border late in the day. Rain and high terrain snow will 
invade the northwestern half of the state Saturday night and persist 
Sunday while strong westerly winds whip across eastern New Mexico. 
Much of next week will feature occasional cloud cover, chances for 
rain and mountain snow west and central, along with a day to day 
cool down. Temperatures by next Wednesday and Thursday will fall to 
below normal. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Not many changes to the forecast in the shorter term. Kept the 
isolated thunderstorms for the Gila and south central today with 
NAM12 consistently indicating some instability in that part of the 
forecast area and considering the latest SPC Day 1 outlook. Also 
increased areal coverage for showers slightly over the south central 
into the east central/southeast this afternoon/tonight based on the 
NAM12 areal coverage of precipitation. Despite today's cloud cover, 
high temperatures will remain above average.  

Although clouds decrease tonight with the exit of the weakening 
upper low/trough, they return again Saturday. Models have continued 
to slow down the onset of precipitation from the next disturbance, 
but didn't quite have the courage to zero out the pops over western 
NM for Saturday, especially in the afternoon. Reduced the Saturday 
evening pops slightly so that the bulk of precipitation occurs 
during the overnight, and now Sunday appears a bit wetter with 
precipitation slower to exit. Guidance has also decreased a little 
in regards to wind speeds Sunday afternoon but still some wind 
advisories are possible in the east. Currently forecast snow amounts 
Saturday night/Sunday would also support a winter weather advisory 
for the San Juan/Tusas Mountain zone and perhaps marginally the Far 
Northwest Highlands and/or the Jemez.  

Models have developed a rather persistent fetch of moisture for next 
week, but to what extent it may affect New Mexico is a bit 
uncertain. The GFS is more bullish than the ECMWF. The Tuesday night 
through Thursday period could see areas of wetting precipitation 
west and central while the northeast could see better chances for 
precipitation Thursday thanks to a cold front. The back door front 
previously forecast for Tuesday is now shown to hang up to our 
northeast until Thursday when it finally sags into northeast New 
Mexico. Regardless, due at least in part to increased shower 
activity and clouds, temperatures by the middle of next week cool to 
below average. Any significant snow accumulations during this 
time would remain over the higher terrain.  

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weakening upper level storm system will cross NM today. Very 
little wind is expected with this system, but it may bring some 
light showers to the West Central Highlands. A stray lightning 
strike is also possible. Otherwise, quite a bit more cloud cover 
than yesterday, but high temps will differ little. Poor ventilation 
will be common for most areas, though fair to good vent rates are 
expected east of the Central Mountain Chain and south of I-40. 

Saturday will be mainly quiet with a few breezes across eastern NM 
along the I-40 corridor. Humidity values will remain above 20% so no 
critical thresholds will be reached. On Sunday, winds will increase 
areawide as the next storm system approaches the state. However, 
abundant cloud cover will also overspread the state limiting the 
mixing potential. Nonetheless, breezy to windy conditions are likely 
nearly areawide. However, critical fire weather conditions are not 
expected due to daytime humidity values remaining above 20% and 
Haines values remaining low. Rather, precipitation will begin to 
move into west and northwest NM by mid day, spreading eastward to 
the Central Mountain Chain by late afternoon. Precipitation will 
likely not make it east of the Central Mountain Chain. Snow levels 
will be AOA 8000-8500 feet. The highest elevations of the Tusas 
Mountains stand the best chance at light to moderate snow 
accumulations. Ventilation rates trend upward slightly on Saturday, 
but much more so on Sunday. 

Quieter conditions expected Monday with west-southwest flow aloft. A 
few showers are possible across the west, but wetting rains are not 
expected. Tuesday will be similar, but a little breezier. Models are 
a bit at odds for the mid week period. The GFS is suggesting a 
subtropical moisture surge will impact NM bringing widespread 
precipitation. However, snow levels would remain high. The ECMWF 
keeps the subtropical moisture south of the state, but still swings 
a trough across NM with some light precipitation and colder 
temperatures. Stay tuned. 

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$