422 FXUS65 KABQ 011123 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 423 AM MST Fri Feb 1 2019 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE A weakening upper level storm system approaching NM from the west is increasing cloud cover from SW to NE this morning. Cloud bases will continue to lower as the system nears and crosses NM today. A few rain and high elevation snow showers will be possible mainly across the southwest and south central mountains today. Localized MVFR cigs/vsbys and mountain obscurations are possible. 34 && .PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MST Fri Feb 1 2019... .SYNOPSIS... Clouds will be more noticeable today, and are expected to bring isolated to scattered light showers and a few brief thunderstorms to the Gila and South Central Mountains today and tonight. Saturday will see another round of clouds overall and isolated showers near the Arizona border late in the day. Rain and high terrain snow will invade the northwestern half of the state Saturday night and persist Sunday while strong westerly winds whip across eastern New Mexico. Much of next week will feature occasional cloud cover, chances for rain and mountain snow west and central, along with a day to day cool down. Temperatures by next Wednesday and Thursday will fall to below normal. && .DISCUSSION... Not many changes to the forecast in the shorter term. Kept the isolated thunderstorms for the Gila and south central today with NAM12 consistently indicating some instability in that part of the forecast area and considering the latest SPC Day 1 outlook. Also increased areal coverage for showers slightly over the south central into the east central/southeast this afternoon/tonight based on the NAM12 areal coverage of precipitation. Despite today's cloud cover, high temperatures will remain above average. Although clouds decrease tonight with the exit of the weakening upper low/trough, they return again Saturday. Models have continued to slow down the onset of precipitation from the next disturbance, but didn't quite have the courage to zero out the pops over western NM for Saturday, especially in the afternoon. Reduced the Saturday evening pops slightly so that the bulk of precipitation occurs during the overnight, and now Sunday appears a bit wetter with precipitation slower to exit. Guidance has also decreased a little in regards to wind speeds Sunday afternoon but still some wind advisories are possible in the east. Currently forecast snow amounts Saturday night/Sunday would also support a winter weather advisory for the San Juan/Tusas Mountain zone and perhaps marginally the Far Northwest Highlands and/or the Jemez. Models have developed a rather persistent fetch of moisture for next week, but to what extent it may affect New Mexico is a bit uncertain. The GFS is more bullish than the ECMWF. The Tuesday night through Thursday period could see areas of wetting precipitation west and central while the northeast could see better chances for precipitation Thursday thanks to a cold front. The back door front previously forecast for Tuesday is now shown to hang up to our northeast until Thursday when it finally sags into northeast New Mexico. Regardless, due at least in part to increased shower activity and clouds, temperatures by the middle of next week cool to below average. Any significant snow accumulations during this time would remain over the higher terrain. && .FIRE WEATHER... A weakening upper level storm system will cross NM today. Very little wind is expected with this system, but it may bring some light showers to the West Central Highlands. A stray lightning strike is also possible. Otherwise, quite a bit more cloud cover than yesterday, but high temps will differ little. Poor ventilation will be common for most areas, though fair to good vent rates are expected east of the Central Mountain Chain and south of I-40. Saturday will be mainly quiet with a few breezes across eastern NM along the I-40 corridor. Humidity values will remain above 20% so no critical thresholds will be reached. On Sunday, winds will increase areawide as the next storm system approaches the state. However, abundant cloud cover will also overspread the state limiting the mixing potential. Nonetheless, breezy to windy conditions are likely nearly areawide. However, critical fire weather conditions are not expected due to daytime humidity values remaining above 20% and Haines values remaining low. Rather, precipitation will begin to move into west and northwest NM by mid day, spreading eastward to the Central Mountain Chain by late afternoon. Precipitation will likely not make it east of the Central Mountain Chain. Snow levels will be AOA 8000-8500 feet. The highest elevations of the Tusas Mountains stand the best chance at light to moderate snow accumulations. Ventilation rates trend upward slightly on Saturday, but much more so on Sunday. Quieter conditions expected Monday with west-southwest flow aloft. A few showers are possible across the west, but wetting rains are not expected. Tuesday will be similar, but a little breezier. Models are a bit at odds for the mid week period. The GFS is suggesting a subtropical moisture surge will impact NM bringing widespread precipitation. However, snow levels would remain high. The ECMWF keeps the subtropical moisture south of the state, but still swings a trough across NM with some light precipitation and colder temperatures. Stay tuned. 34 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$