922 
FXUS63 KLMK 300858
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
358 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...Snow Showers Tonight, Dangerously Cold Wind Chills Tomorrow...

Interesting little set-up starting to take form in the short term. 
The long advertised, strong cold front will quickly move into the 
region tonight. Along the cold front, models indicate a narrow line 
of "convective" snowfall developing. While the residence time of 
snowfall will be over a small window (1-2hrs), there is some concern 
that the snow, combined with windy conditions, will create reduced 
visibilities and difficult travel conditions. Thinking snow 
accumulations should be light, generally a half inch or less, but 
can't rule out isolated areas getting close to an inch given the 
high snow ratios in place. Given the timing, potential 
accumulations, and short-lived nature of the event, will cover 
everything with an SPS for the time being. 

Wind chills continue to look dangerously cold for the region early 
tomorrow morning. Still looking like wind chills in the -15 to -24 
range across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky for several 
hours in the morning, and slightly "warmer" wind chills in the -10 
to -15 range for central/southern Kentucky where the advisory 
remains in effect. The coldest wind chills look to occur right 
around and a few hours after sunrise, with some slight recovery as 
we head into the afternoon. Did add a row of counties to the south 
into the advisory, as it looks like we'll see criteria met for at 
least a few hours in the morning. Otherwise, the rest of the 
advisory looks on track. Air temperatures won't rise much tomorrow, 
and highs will generally range in the single digits north of the 
Ohio River, and teens across most of central Kentucky.

.Long Term...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...Frigid Weather Continues Into Thursday...

A strong upper level vortex will begin to pull off to the northeast 
across Quebec Wednesday night into Thursday. This will allow weak 
WAA to develop at 850 mb, with low level thickness creeping upward. 
Shortwave energy rotating around the base of the trough will also 
bring some clouds (possibly flurries as well) to areas south of the 
Ohio River. These factors support warmer temperatures overnight into 
Thu morning. So have trended the MinT forecast up, with lows now 
ranging between -2 and 11 F. Wind chill values are expected to range 
from -10 to 0, although single digits above 0 look more likely 
across southern KY. 

Increasing southerly flow on Thursday will boost temperatures into 
the mid 20s to lower 30s by Thursday afternoon. Model discrepancies 
remain regarding precip chances on Friday. A stronger mid-level vort 
looks to dive SE across Indiana/southern Great Lakes. Weak low 
pressure developing off to our west should result in an increasing 
SW jet heading into Friday. Any light precip could begin as snow 
early Friday, followed by brief freezing rain, and finally changing 
over to plain rain. We are expecting rising temperatures Thursday 
night. Friday afternoon highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s, helping 
to limit any impact from frozen precipitation. Still, will need to 
monitor for the potential for light snow accums Fri morning. 

The weekend is looking rather nice. The weather looks dry for the 
most part, with warming temperatures. We're actually looking at 
highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. A strong system ejecting NE 
out of the Plains will bring our next widespread rain chances Sunday 
night into early next week. Look for highs in the 60s on Monday 
prior to fropa, with cooler weather by the middle of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Updated at 1250 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

Current regional observations show the cold front extending from 
just past CVG southwest through FFT and on to just west of BWG. A 
rather broad band of snow is situated along and behind the front 
with some heavier embedded snow showers temporarily bringing CIGS 
down to IFR and VIS down to LIFR. The back end of the snow band is 
currently situated over HNB, so expect HNB will improving VFR 
shortly. SDF experienced the worst of these conditions but should 
see improving conditions within the next couple hours. LEX will see 
snow begin shortly after TAF issuance and should only experience 
tempo MVFR conditions. BWG should also see some snow early on but 
remain MVFR and better. VFR conditions should prevail at all TAF 
sites by daybreak.

The other concern during this TAF cycle is the wind. Cold, arctic 
air behind the front will usher in strong WNW winds for all of the 
morning and into the afternoon hours with wind speeds from 15-20kts 
and gusts in the 25-30kt range. Wind gusts will start to decrease by 
mid afternoon and cease to exist by evening.  

BWG does stand another shot of light snow Wednesday evening, but 
conditions should remain VFR.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Wind Chill Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for 
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ early this 
     morning for INZ089>091.

KY...Wind Chill Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for KYZ031>033.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ early this 
     morning for KYZ023>030-034>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 2 PM EST /1 PM CST/ this afternoon for 
     KYZ023>030-034>043-045>049-053>057-061>065-071.

&&

$$

Short Term...DM
Long Term....EBW
Aviation...CG