922 FXUS63 KLMK 300858 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 358 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019 .Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 305 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019 ...Snow Showers Tonight, Dangerously Cold Wind Chills Tomorrow... Interesting little set-up starting to take form in the short term. The long advertised, strong cold front will quickly move into the region tonight. Along the cold front, models indicate a narrow line of "convective" snowfall developing. While the residence time of snowfall will be over a small window (1-2hrs), there is some concern that the snow, combined with windy conditions, will create reduced visibilities and difficult travel conditions. Thinking snow accumulations should be light, generally a half inch or less, but can't rule out isolated areas getting close to an inch given the high snow ratios in place. Given the timing, potential accumulations, and short-lived nature of the event, will cover everything with an SPS for the time being. Wind chills continue to look dangerously cold for the region early tomorrow morning. Still looking like wind chills in the -15 to -24 range across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky for several hours in the morning, and slightly "warmer" wind chills in the -10 to -15 range for central/southern Kentucky where the advisory remains in effect. The coldest wind chills look to occur right around and a few hours after sunrise, with some slight recovery as we head into the afternoon. Did add a row of counties to the south into the advisory, as it looks like we'll see criteria met for at least a few hours in the morning. Otherwise, the rest of the advisory looks on track. Air temperatures won't rise much tomorrow, and highs will generally range in the single digits north of the Ohio River, and teens across most of central Kentucky. .Long Term...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Jan 29 2019 ...Frigid Weather Continues Into Thursday... A strong upper level vortex will begin to pull off to the northeast across Quebec Wednesday night into Thursday. This will allow weak WAA to develop at 850 mb, with low level thickness creeping upward. Shortwave energy rotating around the base of the trough will also bring some clouds (possibly flurries as well) to areas south of the Ohio River. These factors support warmer temperatures overnight into Thu morning. So have trended the MinT forecast up, with lows now ranging between -2 and 11 F. Wind chill values are expected to range from -10 to 0, although single digits above 0 look more likely across southern KY. Increasing southerly flow on Thursday will boost temperatures into the mid 20s to lower 30s by Thursday afternoon. Model discrepancies remain regarding precip chances on Friday. A stronger mid-level vort looks to dive SE across Indiana/southern Great Lakes. Weak low pressure developing off to our west should result in an increasing SW jet heading into Friday. Any light precip could begin as snow early Friday, followed by brief freezing rain, and finally changing over to plain rain. We are expecting rising temperatures Thursday night. Friday afternoon highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s, helping to limit any impact from frozen precipitation. Still, will need to monitor for the potential for light snow accums Fri morning. The weekend is looking rather nice. The weather looks dry for the most part, with warming temperatures. We're actually looking at highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. A strong system ejecting NE out of the Plains will bring our next widespread rain chances Sunday night into early next week. Look for highs in the 60s on Monday prior to fropa, with cooler weather by the middle of next week. && .Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance) Updated at 1250 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019 Current regional observations show the cold front extending from just past CVG southwest through FFT and on to just west of BWG. A rather broad band of snow is situated along and behind the front with some heavier embedded snow showers temporarily bringing CIGS down to IFR and VIS down to LIFR. The back end of the snow band is currently situated over HNB, so expect HNB will improving VFR shortly. SDF experienced the worst of these conditions but should see improving conditions within the next couple hours. LEX will see snow begin shortly after TAF issuance and should only experience tempo MVFR conditions. BWG should also see some snow early on but remain MVFR and better. VFR conditions should prevail at all TAF sites by daybreak. The other concern during this TAF cycle is the wind. Cold, arctic air behind the front will usher in strong WNW winds for all of the morning and into the afternoon hours with wind speeds from 15-20kts and gusts in the 25-30kt range. Wind gusts will start to decrease by mid afternoon and cease to exist by evening. BWG does stand another shot of light snow Wednesday evening, but conditions should remain VFR. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Wind Chill Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ early this morning for INZ089>091. KY...Wind Chill Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for KYZ031>033. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ early this morning for KYZ023>030-034>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082. Wind Chill Advisory until 2 PM EST /1 PM CST/ this afternoon for KYZ023>030-034>043-045>049-053>057-061>065-071. && $$ Short Term...DM Long Term....EBW Aviation...CG