720 
FXUS64 KMAF 260836
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
236 AM CST Sat Jan 26 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery shows that low-level moisture has returned to the 
far reaches of the Lower Trans Pecos and parts of the PB. There 
will be a persistent SE wind within the first few thousand feet of
the surface and the moisture will likely spread farther into the 
PB after 12Z/Sat. This will occur in advance of a mid-level trough
with any light precip confined to the far S. Temps today will be 
a little cooler than yesterday due to cloud cover. A subtle 
surface boundary will edge into CWFA tonight in wake of said 
trough with northerly low-level winds pushing back to the S. 85h 
temps will be much warmer Sun with broad surface troughing, Sun 
will probably be the warmest day through mid week. Most attention 
is focused on the Arctic airmass that will move to near the I-20 
corridor by mid morning Mon. It will turn windy with at least 
patchy BLDU in wake of front. Advisory level winds (25-35 mph) 
cannot be ruled for the PB/SE NM and high winds through GDP Pass 
Mon night. For now only brief post-frontal low clouds are seen in 
the data, thus temps will have a chance to climb to 50-55 across 
the PB/SE NM and 60s lower elevations of the Trans Pecos, but GFS 
does show high clouds even into Tue AM. We still see potential for
Tue AM lows to be much colder than forecast, ECMWF MOS is about 
the coldest of all model data. Potential for high clouds does make
for a difficult forecast, but the presence of the surface high is
compelling. Model consensus for Tue AM lows are mostly in the 
M20s-U20s and on the low end ranges are from the mid teens around
Tatum to around 20-25 elsewhere. For now we will continue to 
undercut consensus data by a few degrees. A cool day will follow 
Tue, warmer Wed. Thur will definitely be warmer across the western
half of the CWFA, but GFS is reluctant to warm up the far eastern
CWFA. A mid-level trough comes into play Fri/Sat, however 
timing/track differ in models. GFS even develops some precip early
Sat, this could easily change and we will not place an emphasis 
in grids.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  34  62  40 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                       56  31  63  38 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                         55  36  65  40 /  10  10   0   0 
Fort Stockton                  56  34  64  43 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass                 51  32  55  38 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                          54  28  62  37 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                          56  23  59  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport           55  33  62  40 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                         54  32  62  40 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                           56  28  64  36 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$