720 FXUS64 KMAF 260836 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 236 AM CST Sat Jan 26 2019 .DISCUSSION... Satellite imagery shows that low-level moisture has returned to the far reaches of the Lower Trans Pecos and parts of the PB. There will be a persistent SE wind within the first few thousand feet of the surface and the moisture will likely spread farther into the PB after 12Z/Sat. This will occur in advance of a mid-level trough with any light precip confined to the far S. Temps today will be a little cooler than yesterday due to cloud cover. A subtle surface boundary will edge into CWFA tonight in wake of said trough with northerly low-level winds pushing back to the S. 85h temps will be much warmer Sun with broad surface troughing, Sun will probably be the warmest day through mid week. Most attention is focused on the Arctic airmass that will move to near the I-20 corridor by mid morning Mon. It will turn windy with at least patchy BLDU in wake of front. Advisory level winds (25-35 mph) cannot be ruled for the PB/SE NM and high winds through GDP Pass Mon night. For now only brief post-frontal low clouds are seen in the data, thus temps will have a chance to climb to 50-55 across the PB/SE NM and 60s lower elevations of the Trans Pecos, but GFS does show high clouds even into Tue AM. We still see potential for Tue AM lows to be much colder than forecast, ECMWF MOS is about the coldest of all model data. Potential for high clouds does make for a difficult forecast, but the presence of the surface high is compelling. Model consensus for Tue AM lows are mostly in the M20s-U20s and on the low end ranges are from the mid teens around Tatum to around 20-25 elsewhere. For now we will continue to undercut consensus data by a few degrees. A cool day will follow Tue, warmer Wed. Thur will definitely be warmer across the western half of the CWFA, but GFS is reluctant to warm up the far eastern CWFA. A mid-level trough comes into play Fri/Sat, however timing/track differ in models. GFS even develops some precip early Sat, this could easily change and we will not place an emphasis in grids. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 54 34 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 56 31 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 55 36 65 40 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 56 34 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 51 32 55 38 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 54 28 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 56 23 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 55 33 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 54 32 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 56 28 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$