844 
FXUS64 KTSA 211135
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
535 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Winds will pick up by mid morning for all the TAF sites. Gusts to
35 or 40 mph are possible by this afternoon. The gradient stays
strong tonight, with gusty south winds continuing into the 
overnight hours. Low clouds will develop after midnight with 
drizzle possible. For now will forecast MVFR ceiling for all
sites. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 322 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

Very little has changed philosophically with this morning's 
forecast than what was advertised over the weekend.

Surface pressure falls over the central and southern High Plains,
in response to a strong progressive wave approaching from the west,
will tighten the pressure gradient significantly over our area 
today. Based on the latest data, which shows some pretty healthy
925mb winds later today, the highest prob of advisory level gusts
(~40 mph) will be across NE OK and far NW AR, where an advisory
will be issued from noon to 6 pm. It is possible that some strong
gusts could continue into the evening given the strong kinematic
low lvl fields, and will let day shift evaluate and extend if
needed.

Low level moisture return tonight into Tuesday morning ahead of 
the approaching surface low and cold front will result in areas of
drizzle or sprinkles across the region. By Tuesday afternoon
showers will become likely, especially in the east, with the 
front.

Based on last night's guidance, it still remains possible that 
precip may linger long enough on the cold side of the front to get
a light wintry mix before the precip ends. The latest data
continues to show troughing lingering to our west in a broader 
NE-SW oriented upper trough structure, which could prolong the 
lift over our area. As of right now, qpf and thus wintry precip 
amounts look very light and would likely not cause impacts, but 
this does bear watching. Any subtle disturbance in the flow could 
increase precip on the cold side of the front, much like what we 
saw Saturday.

In the wake of this system, models depict a fairly amplified upper
flow pattern over the CONUS, with the mean trough axis over the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Several disturbances will traverse
the NW flow, the timing of which is differing from run to run.
Nevertheless, cold fronts should keep temps near or slightly 
below average from midweek on into the weekend. Models are also 
differing on the amount of moisture available with each passing 
disturbance. NW flow patterns this time of year are more 
typically drier patterns, and this forecast will continue to lean 
that way for now.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   50  44  55  23 /   0  20  30   0 
FSM   48  39  57  28 /   0  20  70  50 
MLC   52  47  59  26 /   0  20  40  20 
BVO   48  42  52  23 /   0  20  30   0 
FYV   43  38  54  23 /   0  20  70  50 
BYV   42  36  54  24 /   0  20  70  60 
MKO   50  41  56  24 /   0  20  50  20 
MIO   45  39  52  22 /   0  20  60  20 
F10   51  44  56  25 /   0  20  30  10 
HHW   53  46  61  29 /   0  30  60  40 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for 
     OKZ054>067-070.

AR...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for 
     ARZ001.

&&

$$


AVIATION.....06

CORFIDI