844 FXUS64 KTSA 211135 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 535 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. Winds will pick up by mid morning for all the TAF sites. Gusts to 35 or 40 mph are possible by this afternoon. The gradient stays strong tonight, with gusty south winds continuing into the overnight hours. Low clouds will develop after midnight with drizzle possible. For now will forecast MVFR ceiling for all sites. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 322 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019/ DISCUSSION... Very little has changed philosophically with this morning's forecast than what was advertised over the weekend. Surface pressure falls over the central and southern High Plains, in response to a strong progressive wave approaching from the west, will tighten the pressure gradient significantly over our area today. Based on the latest data, which shows some pretty healthy 925mb winds later today, the highest prob of advisory level gusts (~40 mph) will be across NE OK and far NW AR, where an advisory will be issued from noon to 6 pm. It is possible that some strong gusts could continue into the evening given the strong kinematic low lvl fields, and will let day shift evaluate and extend if needed. Low level moisture return tonight into Tuesday morning ahead of the approaching surface low and cold front will result in areas of drizzle or sprinkles across the region. By Tuesday afternoon showers will become likely, especially in the east, with the front. Based on last night's guidance, it still remains possible that precip may linger long enough on the cold side of the front to get a light wintry mix before the precip ends. The latest data continues to show troughing lingering to our west in a broader NE-SW oriented upper trough structure, which could prolong the lift over our area. As of right now, qpf and thus wintry precip amounts look very light and would likely not cause impacts, but this does bear watching. Any subtle disturbance in the flow could increase precip on the cold side of the front, much like what we saw Saturday. In the wake of this system, models depict a fairly amplified upper flow pattern over the CONUS, with the mean trough axis over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Several disturbances will traverse the NW flow, the timing of which is differing from run to run. Nevertheless, cold fronts should keep temps near or slightly below average from midweek on into the weekend. Models are also differing on the amount of moisture available with each passing disturbance. NW flow patterns this time of year are more typically drier patterns, and this forecast will continue to lean that way for now. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 50 44 55 23 / 0 20 30 0 FSM 48 39 57 28 / 0 20 70 50 MLC 52 47 59 26 / 0 20 40 20 BVO 48 42 52 23 / 0 20 30 0 FYV 43 38 54 23 / 0 20 70 50 BYV 42 36 54 24 / 0 20 70 60 MKO 50 41 56 24 / 0 20 50 20 MIO 45 39 52 22 / 0 20 60 20 F10 51 44 56 25 / 0 20 30 10 HHW 53 46 61 29 / 0 30 60 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ054>067-070. AR...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ001. && $$ AVIATION.....06 CORFIDI