National Weather Service Raw Text Product

126 
FXUS63 KGLD 210006
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
506 PM MST Sun Jan 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) 
Issued at 220 PM MST Sun Jan 20 2019

Tonight...high clouds increase from west to east ahead of an upper 
trough moving into Nevada by sunrise Monday morning. An east to 
southeast surface wind of 10 to 15 mph will allow for low clouds and 
freezing fog to slowly back into the area from the east from mid 
evening through sunrise Monday impacting nearly all (except western 
Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties of CO) of the area. GFSLamp vis 
forecasts dont show dense freezing fog while the RAP13 does. Cant 
rule out some patchy freezing drizzle as well. Low temperatures in 
the upper teens/around 20 east to the low/mid 20s west. 

Monday...the upper trough continues to advance toward the area with 
the better mid level moisture still northwest and west of the area 
while at cirrus level some decrease in coverage is expected during 
the afternoon. Bigger concerns are at the lower levels where western 
extent of stratus will dictate how warm or not warm it will get, 
especially for counties in the vicinity of the CO/KS border where 
biggest discrepancies are expected. The NAM is the only model with 
the developing surface low further west toward the CO front range 
and as a result the stratus and coldest 2m temperatures are as far 
west as Burlington and Cheyenne Wells. All other better performing 
models from the past 7 days and GFS/ECMWF/HPC sfc low forecasts have 
it near KLIC with some southwesterly component to the wind into far 
eastern Colorado. This will create a significant difference in 
surface temperature. Cant rule out the NAM completely as its been 
right before in similar circumstances but for now will trend toward 
the consensus of the models which advertises highs in the 30s 
across the east with low to mid 50s across the west. Will also 
have varying degrees of freezing fog along and east of the CO/KS 
border at sunrise slowly dissipating from west to east in the late
morning through afternoon hours. 

Monday night-Tuesday...latest models runs bring the upper trough 
through the area with precipitation starting in the far northwest 
and west around 03z steadily spreading across the rest of the area 
through mid to late morning Tuesday before decreasing from west to 
east in the mid to late afternoon. Could also see mixed 
precipitation further east ahead of the main 850-500mb moisture axis 
associated with the trough. North winds of 25 to 35 mph with higher 
gusts are expected overnight through mid morning Tuesday with 30 to 
40 mph winds with higher gusts for a few hours around 18z before 
falling a tad in the afternoon. Blowing and drifting snow is 
expected with reduced visibilities. Snowfall totals remain in the
1 to 5 inch range along/north of the interstate with lower 
amounts to the south. Highest amounts remain in the northwest 
portion of the area (Flagler to St Francis and Benkelman 
westward) where 4 to 5 inches currently expected. Per coordination
with Boulder and Pueblo weather offices have issued a Winter 
Storm Watch for Kit Carson and Yuma counties valid Monday evening 
through Tuesday morning. Wouldnt be surprised if counties along 
and north of the interstate get put into Winter Weather Advisory 
from later shifts. Low temperatures in the low to mid 20s. High 
temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. Could see a bit lower 
readings in the northwest if the forecasted accumulations become 
reality. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) 
Issued at 155 PM MST Sun Jan 20 2019

Dry weather and lighter winds return to the region Tuesday evening 
as the upper trough impacting the High Plains earlier in the day 
progresses east. Northwest flow aloft prevails through the rest of 
the long term, with the trough remaining over the eastern half of 
the country. A series of shortwaves move through the northwest flow, 
the first pronounced wave coming midweek and another during the 
weekend.

The midweek disturbance generates chances for light snow Wednesday 
night followed by a cold front pushing across the region on 
Thursday. Little to no accumulation is anticipated at this time. 
Friday through the weekend looks to be dry as a wave travels from 
the northern Plains towards the Ohio River Valley. Current guidance 
keeps precipitation to the northeast of the forecast area, but will 
need to monitor for any changes. 

A warmup is forecast on Wednesday with highs in the low 40s before a 
frontal passage drops highs into the 30s again on Thursday. 
Temperatures slowly increase thereafter, ranging in the upper 30s to 
low 40s on Friday and Saturday (with a potential for the warming 
trend to continue on Sunday). Low temperatures stay in the teens to 
low 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 433 PM MST Sun Jan 20 2019

GLD will start out VFR and transition to IFR between 07Z-08Z with
the development of freezing fog and drizzle that will continue
through about 18Z on Monday. After 18Z Monday, conditions will
transition briefly to VFR ahead of light snow that moves in after
04Z Monday evening.

MCK will start out VFR and transition to IFR due to low ceilings
after 03Z with visibilities decreasing due to freezing fog and 
drizzle that will continue through about 18Z Monday. Low ceilings
and IFR conditions will persist through the remainder of the TAF
period.



&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning 
     for COZ090-091.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...LOCKHART