126 FXUS63 KGLD 210006 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 506 PM MST Sun Jan 20 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 220 PM MST Sun Jan 20 2019 Tonight...high clouds increase from west to east ahead of an upper trough moving into Nevada by sunrise Monday morning. An east to southeast surface wind of 10 to 15 mph will allow for low clouds and freezing fog to slowly back into the area from the east from mid evening through sunrise Monday impacting nearly all (except western Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties of CO) of the area. GFSLamp vis forecasts dont show dense freezing fog while the RAP13 does. Cant rule out some patchy freezing drizzle as well. Low temperatures in the upper teens/around 20 east to the low/mid 20s west. Monday...the upper trough continues to advance toward the area with the better mid level moisture still northwest and west of the area while at cirrus level some decrease in coverage is expected during the afternoon. Bigger concerns are at the lower levels where western extent of stratus will dictate how warm or not warm it will get, especially for counties in the vicinity of the CO/KS border where biggest discrepancies are expected. The NAM is the only model with the developing surface low further west toward the CO front range and as a result the stratus and coldest 2m temperatures are as far west as Burlington and Cheyenne Wells. All other better performing models from the past 7 days and GFS/ECMWF/HPC sfc low forecasts have it near KLIC with some southwesterly component to the wind into far eastern Colorado. This will create a significant difference in surface temperature. Cant rule out the NAM completely as its been right before in similar circumstances but for now will trend toward the consensus of the models which advertises highs in the 30s across the east with low to mid 50s across the west. Will also have varying degrees of freezing fog along and east of the CO/KS border at sunrise slowly dissipating from west to east in the late morning through afternoon hours. Monday night-Tuesday...latest models runs bring the upper trough through the area with precipitation starting in the far northwest and west around 03z steadily spreading across the rest of the area through mid to late morning Tuesday before decreasing from west to east in the mid to late afternoon. Could also see mixed precipitation further east ahead of the main 850-500mb moisture axis associated with the trough. North winds of 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts are expected overnight through mid morning Tuesday with 30 to 40 mph winds with higher gusts for a few hours around 18z before falling a tad in the afternoon. Blowing and drifting snow is expected with reduced visibilities. Snowfall totals remain in the 1 to 5 inch range along/north of the interstate with lower amounts to the south. Highest amounts remain in the northwest portion of the area (Flagler to St Francis and Benkelman westward) where 4 to 5 inches currently expected. Per coordination with Boulder and Pueblo weather offices have issued a Winter Storm Watch for Kit Carson and Yuma counties valid Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Wouldnt be surprised if counties along and north of the interstate get put into Winter Weather Advisory from later shifts. Low temperatures in the low to mid 20s. High temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. Could see a bit lower readings in the northwest if the forecasted accumulations become reality. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 155 PM MST Sun Jan 20 2019 Dry weather and lighter winds return to the region Tuesday evening as the upper trough impacting the High Plains earlier in the day progresses east. Northwest flow aloft prevails through the rest of the long term, with the trough remaining over the eastern half of the country. A series of shortwaves move through the northwest flow, the first pronounced wave coming midweek and another during the weekend. The midweek disturbance generates chances for light snow Wednesday night followed by a cold front pushing across the region on Thursday. Little to no accumulation is anticipated at this time. Friday through the weekend looks to be dry as a wave travels from the northern Plains towards the Ohio River Valley. Current guidance keeps precipitation to the northeast of the forecast area, but will need to monitor for any changes. A warmup is forecast on Wednesday with highs in the low 40s before a frontal passage drops highs into the 30s again on Thursday. Temperatures slowly increase thereafter, ranging in the upper 30s to low 40s on Friday and Saturday (with a potential for the warming trend to continue on Sunday). Low temperatures stay in the teens to low 20s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 433 PM MST Sun Jan 20 2019 GLD will start out VFR and transition to IFR between 07Z-08Z with the development of freezing fog and drizzle that will continue through about 18Z on Monday. After 18Z Monday, conditions will transition briefly to VFR ahead of light snow that moves in after 04Z Monday evening. MCK will start out VFR and transition to IFR due to low ceilings after 03Z with visibilities decreasing due to freezing fog and drizzle that will continue through about 18Z Monday. Low ceilings and IFR conditions will persist through the remainder of the TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for COZ090-091. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...JBH AVIATION...LOCKHART