542 
FXUS64 KLUB 201726
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1126 AM CST Sun Jan 20 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR next 24 hours with only concern being that of breezy
conditions this afternoon diminishing late this afternoon.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CST Sun Jan 20 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
A low amplitude upper level ridge axis will gradually flatten 
while crossing the southern high plains later today though flow 
will remain northwesterly aloft until this evening. Modest surface
pressure falls will result in mostly 15 mph winds on the Caprock 
or less today, and a nice day in all with decent warming into the 
60s. Mostly thin high clouds will spread overhead tonight behind 
the ridge axis. Monday will see backed southwest flow aloft with 
increasing deep layer winds late in the day and further surface 
pressure falls. Strongest winds aloft are likely to pass Monday 
night and majority of guidance indicates surface winds increasing 
Monday afternoon into low-end windy category on the Caprock, a 
little less over the Rolling Plains. As the stronger flow passes 
Monday night with an approaching sharp but positively tilted upper
trough, the surface low pressure trough will detach from the lee 
of the Rockies and pull into the eastern Panhandle early Tuesday. 
Surface flow Monday night will gradually veer and should be 
modestly gusty and perhaps locally windy through much of the 
night. Flow will remain quite progressive through Tuesday and a 
modest cold front will sweep across the area mostly before midday 
Tuesday with 3 hour surface pressure rises appearing around 7 or 8
millibars. This should account for around 20 to 25 mph sustained 
winds, locally close to 30 mph in the southern panhandle, with 
winds easing Tuesday night and becoming variable Wednesday. Cooler
air will dominate the remainder of the week along with a dry 
airmass in dominant northwesterly flow but the coldest air will 
dump to our east. A weak re-enforcing cool front is still expected
Thursday afternoon and another Saturday. RMcQueen

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry, warmer, and low-end breezy conditions will develop today, 
but wind speeds likely will remain mostly 15 mph or less. Local 
elevated fire weather may occur on the Caprock this afternoon. 
Monday will see the approach of a sharp upper level ridge and 
increasing wind flow in the afternoon. A low-end windy day is 
expected along with temperatures close to 20 degrees warmer than 
normal and relative humidity less than 15 percent most areas on 
the Caprock. Strongest wind flow is expected to pass Monday night,
perhaps allowing the area to avoid widespread Red Flag 
conditions. At a minimum expect widespread elevated fire weather 
concerns Monday with locally critical conditions. A cold front 
will pass late Tuesday morning and should mostly ease concerns the
remainder of the week. Dry weather is expected for the coming 
week. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/26