542 FXUS64 KLUB 201726 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1126 AM CST Sun Jan 20 2019 .AVIATION... VFR next 24 hours with only concern being that of breezy conditions this afternoon diminishing late this afternoon. && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CST Sun Jan 20 2019/ DISCUSSION... A low amplitude upper level ridge axis will gradually flatten while crossing the southern high plains later today though flow will remain northwesterly aloft until this evening. Modest surface pressure falls will result in mostly 15 mph winds on the Caprock or less today, and a nice day in all with decent warming into the 60s. Mostly thin high clouds will spread overhead tonight behind the ridge axis. Monday will see backed southwest flow aloft with increasing deep layer winds late in the day and further surface pressure falls. Strongest winds aloft are likely to pass Monday night and majority of guidance indicates surface winds increasing Monday afternoon into low-end windy category on the Caprock, a little less over the Rolling Plains. As the stronger flow passes Monday night with an approaching sharp but positively tilted upper trough, the surface low pressure trough will detach from the lee of the Rockies and pull into the eastern Panhandle early Tuesday. Surface flow Monday night will gradually veer and should be modestly gusty and perhaps locally windy through much of the night. Flow will remain quite progressive through Tuesday and a modest cold front will sweep across the area mostly before midday Tuesday with 3 hour surface pressure rises appearing around 7 or 8 millibars. This should account for around 20 to 25 mph sustained winds, locally close to 30 mph in the southern panhandle, with winds easing Tuesday night and becoming variable Wednesday. Cooler air will dominate the remainder of the week along with a dry airmass in dominant northwesterly flow but the coldest air will dump to our east. A weak re-enforcing cool front is still expected Thursday afternoon and another Saturday. RMcQueen FIRE WEATHER... Dry, warmer, and low-end breezy conditions will develop today, but wind speeds likely will remain mostly 15 mph or less. Local elevated fire weather may occur on the Caprock this afternoon. Monday will see the approach of a sharp upper level ridge and increasing wind flow in the afternoon. A low-end windy day is expected along with temperatures close to 20 degrees warmer than normal and relative humidity less than 15 percent most areas on the Caprock. Strongest wind flow is expected to pass Monday night, perhaps allowing the area to avoid widespread Red Flag conditions. At a minimum expect widespread elevated fire weather concerns Monday with locally critical conditions. A cold front will pass late Tuesday morning and should mostly ease concerns the remainder of the week. Dry weather is expected for the coming week. RMcQueen && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 99/99/26