839 
FXUS64 KMAF 092325
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
525 PM CST Wed Jan 9 2019

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Radar shows scattered high based -SHRA with observations showing
cloud bases in the 030-050 range. This will be the case through 
around 08Z or so when there will be the potential for MVFR/IFR 
CIGS, per NAM12 soundings, and a few more -SHRA. We have omitted
SHRA for this issuance, but will continue to evaluate the 
potential for SHRA at TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 PM CST Wed Jan 9 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

Abundant cloud cover as well as easterly upslope flow have 
maintained below normal temperatures this afternoon, with most 
locations in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Light returns on radar 
west of the I-10/I-20 split are indicative of showers developing 
ahead of a potent shortwave, currently lifting northeastward out
of Mexico ahead of an approaching upper trough. Not sure how 
much precipitation, if any, is actually hitting the ground, but 
expect gradual boundary layer moistening, yielding increasing 
rain chances through tonight across the area. Modeled QPF
associated with this shortwave tonight remains light, generally 
under 0.25", so impacts should be limited to wet and possibly 
slippery roads. Southerly to southwesterly surface flow will 
return Thursday ahead of an upper trough, allowing temperatures to
warm closer to normal Thursday afternoon. Showers remain possible
Thursday, mainly south of I-10, though there is a much better 
opportunity Thursday night and Friday as the aforementioned upper 
trough intensifies and progresses from the Rockies toward the 
Central Plains. Given temperatures will be well above freezing 
Thursday night, with lows in the 40s for most, freezing/frozen 
precipitation is not expected. On Friday, highs will range from 
the upper 50s to middle 60s for most with the best rain chances 
across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos as the storm system 
drifts eastward toward the Middle Mississippi Valley.

On the heels of the departing system, a cold front will move
through Southeast New Mexico and West Texas on Friday night, 
yielding cooler temperatures to start the weekend. Highs Saturday 
will top out in the 50s for most, with 60s confined to the Rio 
Grande Valley. Models are still hinting at a quick moving 
shortwave that may affect the region on Sunday, though have 
trended drier. Thus, have maintained a dry forecast through the 
extended. However, Sunday does look to be the coolest day of the 
forecast, with temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The
chilly temperatures will be short-lived, with a quick rebound on
tap early next week, with potential for a return to above normal
temperatures by midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  57  46  62 /  40  10  60  50 
Carlsbad                       36  59  45  64 /  30  10  60  30 
Dryden                         44  58  48  64 /  30  20  60  60 
Fort Stockton                  42  62  48  65 /  40  10  70  50 
Guadalupe Pass                 36  53  42  55 /  30  10  60  20 
Hobbs                          36  56  42  59 /  40  10  60  30 
Marfa                          36  61  41  58 /  30  20  80  40 
Midland Intl Airport           41  57  46  62 /  40  10  60  40 
Odessa                         41  57  46  63 /  40  10  60  40 
Wink                           39  62  46  65 /  40  10  60  30 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$