839 FXUS64 KMAF 092325 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 525 PM CST Wed Jan 9 2019 .DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... Radar shows scattered high based -SHRA with observations showing cloud bases in the 030-050 range. This will be the case through around 08Z or so when there will be the potential for MVFR/IFR CIGS, per NAM12 soundings, and a few more -SHRA. We have omitted SHRA for this issuance, but will continue to evaluate the potential for SHRA at TAF sites. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 PM CST Wed Jan 9 2019/ DISCUSSION... Abundant cloud cover as well as easterly upslope flow have maintained below normal temperatures this afternoon, with most locations in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Light returns on radar west of the I-10/I-20 split are indicative of showers developing ahead of a potent shortwave, currently lifting northeastward out of Mexico ahead of an approaching upper trough. Not sure how much precipitation, if any, is actually hitting the ground, but expect gradual boundary layer moistening, yielding increasing rain chances through tonight across the area. Modeled QPF associated with this shortwave tonight remains light, generally under 0.25", so impacts should be limited to wet and possibly slippery roads. Southerly to southwesterly surface flow will return Thursday ahead of an upper trough, allowing temperatures to warm closer to normal Thursday afternoon. Showers remain possible Thursday, mainly south of I-10, though there is a much better opportunity Thursday night and Friday as the aforementioned upper trough intensifies and progresses from the Rockies toward the Central Plains. Given temperatures will be well above freezing Thursday night, with lows in the 40s for most, freezing/frozen precipitation is not expected. On Friday, highs will range from the upper 50s to middle 60s for most with the best rain chances across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos as the storm system drifts eastward toward the Middle Mississippi Valley. On the heels of the departing system, a cold front will move through Southeast New Mexico and West Texas on Friday night, yielding cooler temperatures to start the weekend. Highs Saturday will top out in the 50s for most, with 60s confined to the Rio Grande Valley. Models are still hinting at a quick moving shortwave that may affect the region on Sunday, though have trended drier. Thus, have maintained a dry forecast through the extended. However, Sunday does look to be the coolest day of the forecast, with temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The chilly temperatures will be short-lived, with a quick rebound on tap early next week, with potential for a return to above normal temperatures by midweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 42 57 46 62 / 40 10 60 50 Carlsbad 36 59 45 64 / 30 10 60 30 Dryden 44 58 48 64 / 30 20 60 60 Fort Stockton 42 62 48 65 / 40 10 70 50 Guadalupe Pass 36 53 42 55 / 30 10 60 20 Hobbs 36 56 42 59 / 40 10 60 30 Marfa 36 61 41 58 / 30 20 80 40 Midland Intl Airport 41 57 46 62 / 40 10 60 40 Odessa 41 57 46 63 / 40 10 60 40 Wink 39 62 46 65 / 40 10 60 30 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$