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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOAX Product Timestamp: 2018-11-04 16:53 UTC
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305 FXUS63 KOAX 041653 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1053 AM CST Sun Nov 4 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 311 AM CST Sun Nov 4 2018 The latest surface analysis shows low pressure centered near Kansas City and its associated upper-level trough located from the Dakotas into northern Texas. This surface feature will allow for lingering drizzle, or light rain, in far western Iowa the next few hours before moving to eastern Iowa this afternoon. Clouds will move out by late afternoon/early evening allowing for some sunshine where clearing does occur in time. For this evening expect dry weather under a transitory upper- level ridge with overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s. As this ridge moves east a shortwave moves through the area after midnight. This will yield a cloudy and showery Monday with clearing after midnight. Expect dry weather and gusty winds on Tuesday. High temperatures will rise into the upper 40s and low 50s under generally sunny skies. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 311 AM CST Sun Nov 4 2018 The main forecast concern during this time period is the chance for accumulating snow and much colder temperatures as overall airmass temperatures plummet by the end of the work week. The latest guidance shows 850mb temperatures dropping below -5C, or possibly colder. This much colder airmass will support Thursday night lows in the upper teens and low 20s and daytime highs on Friday near freezing. Along with this significant airmass change is the potential for accumulating snow, especially along the Nebraska-Kansas border. Current trends have shifted this snow potential south with some models indicating the majority ends up in Kansas. These trends will need to be monitored closely in upcoming forecast updates. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1046 AM CST Sun Nov 4 2018 IFR conditions expected to gradually improve at all sites over the next few hours. VFR conditions are expected overnight by around 0z. Northwest winds today will continue at 10 to 15 knots and decrease overnight. Some wind shear may be possible at OMA and LNK toward daybreak tomorrow but it has been left out of this TAF cycle since it is in the later periods of the TAF. This will be looked at in the next update. Additionally rain is expected to move in overnight into early morning and ceilings will be decreasing again through the morning hours Monday. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Pearson LONG TERM...Pearson AVIATION...HB