305 
FXUS63 KOAX 041653
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1053 AM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

The latest surface analysis shows low pressure centered near
Kansas City and its associated upper-level trough located from the
Dakotas into northern Texas. This surface feature will allow for
lingering drizzle, or light rain, in far western Iowa the next few
hours before moving to eastern Iowa this afternoon. Clouds will
move out by late afternoon/early evening allowing for some
sunshine where clearing does occur in time. 

For this evening expect dry weather under a transitory upper- 
level ridge with overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s. As this
ridge moves east a shortwave moves through the area after
midnight. This will yield a cloudy and showery Monday with
clearing after midnight.

Expect dry weather and gusty winds on Tuesday. High temperatures 
will rise into the upper 40s and low 50s under generally sunny 
skies.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 311 AM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

The main forecast concern during this time period is the chance
for accumulating snow and much colder temperatures as overall 
airmass temperatures plummet by the end of the work week. The 
latest guidance shows 850mb temperatures dropping below -5C, or
possibly colder. This much colder airmass will support Thursday 
night lows in the upper teens and low 20s and daytime highs on 
Friday near freezing.

Along with this significant airmass change is the potential for 
accumulating snow, especially along the Nebraska-Kansas border.
Current trends have shifted this snow potential south with some
models indicating the majority ends up in Kansas. These trends
will need to be monitored closely in upcoming forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1046 AM CST Sun Nov 4 2018

IFR conditions expected to gradually improve at all sites over the
next few hours. VFR conditions are expected overnight by around
0z. Northwest winds today will continue at 10 to 15 knots and
decrease overnight. Some wind shear may be possible at OMA and LNK
toward daybreak tomorrow but it has been left out of this TAF 
cycle since it is in the later periods of the TAF. This will be 
looked at in the next update. Additionally rain is expected to 
move in overnight into early morning and ceilings will be 
decreasing again through the morning hours Monday. 
 
&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pearson
LONG TERM...Pearson
AVIATION...HB