663 
FXUS64 KHGX 031608
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1108 AM CDT Sat Nov 3 2018

.UPDATE...
No major tweaks to the forecast this morning, besides minor
changes to adjust temperature and dewpoint based on observational
trends. The Fall weather continues, with clear skies and drier air
in place over the region. Chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms still looks to return in the early morning hours
tonight along the northern tier of counties with an approaching 
weak cold front.

Hathaway

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT Sat Nov 3 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...

12Z AVIATION...

No significant changes to the previous forecast. Stronger 
southerly winds expected today with gusts up to around 25 
kts...decreasing by tonight. Timing and strength for SHRA/TSRA 
development ahead of a cold front between models continues off 
sync. At the moment, VCSH included for all TAF sites starting late
tonight through early Sunday morning with probabilities for 
SHRA/TSRA. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT Sat Nov 3 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Clear skies this morning across the area but still anticipate a
little patchy fog in the southwest areas (unless the winds stay
up) which they have so far this morning. GOES Total Precipitable
Water imagery showing 0.4-0.5" across SETX and extending well
offshore. High pressure over the Coastal Bend/Upper Texas Coastal
Waters should slide eastward today and this will allow for a
gradual increase in low level moisture on strengthening southerly
flow throughout the day and by sunset may see PW creeping past 
1.0" in the southwest and coastal counties as the recirculated air
modifies.

Cold front moving into the Panhandle early this morning and up 
into KS steadily push southeastward today and by midnight should 
be near or just through the DFW area. Guidance appears to be in 
pretty close agreement that the front should be through College 
Station and reaching the Huntsville to Columbus line around 7 am 
Sunday. PW ahead of the frontal boundary should climb to 1.4" or 
so and with limited instability prior to any heating. Showers and
a few thunderstorms look reasonable with scattered or greater 
coverage across the north in the early morning on Sunday shifting 
southward into the Metro around 10 am and on to Galveston around 1
pm. The coverage of rain should be fairly widespread though not 
particularly heavy. Greater totals will probably be over the 
northeast areas of Southeast Texas. Houston area and southward 
amounts will probably run around 0.25" or less though an isolated 
0.5" amount is possible. Noticeable cooling in the afternoon 
across the north but temperatures in the south along the coast may
be slow to fall or may just hold steady in the 70-75 degree range
through the afternoon hours. The cold front comes to a halt in 
the coastal waters and then comes back quickly Monday morning and 
temperatures rise back into the lower 80s across the area by 
afternoon with warm and gusty southwesterly flow. Next upper level
trough swings through the Southern Plains Monday/Monday Night 
pushing another front through SETX on Tuesday morning. Capping 
will probably preclude rain over a large chunk of the area 
(western) with greater rain chances far east and southeast. Light 
on the QPF again with this system. Weak broad troughing over the 
Central US will lead to almost zonal flow over SETX Tue/Wed
keeping things relatively mild then next system looks to be a 
sharper trough and deep enough to bring a round of storms to the 
area late Thursday/Friday. Ensemble guidance showing a huge 
diversity of solutions that far out and temperatures on 
Thursday/Friday are a low confidence affair at best. In general 
though temperatures this week will above normal. By Saturday 
expect temperatures back below normal thanks the trough passage 
and a ridge of high pressure plunging southward through Central 
TX.

45

MARINE...
South winds are expected to strengthen today and result in slightly 
higher seas. Small Craft Exercise Caution is in effect for the 
nearshore and offshore waters for winds up to 20 knots through late 
tonight. Winds and seas will decrease on Sunday as a weak cold front 
moves into the waters. Onshore winds return and strengthen again on 
Monday ahead of the next cold front that should arrive Tuesday 
morning. 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      78  59  70  58  81 /   0  70  40   0  10 
Houston (IAH)              78  64  74  62  82 /   0  50  60   0  20 
Galveston (GLS)            78  71  76  70  80 /   0  40  70  10  20 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for the 
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda 
     Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island 
     to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to 
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from 
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Update...08