663 FXUS64 KHGX 031608 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1108 AM CDT Sat Nov 3 2018 .UPDATE... No major tweaks to the forecast this morning, besides minor changes to adjust temperature and dewpoint based on observational trends. The Fall weather continues, with clear skies and drier air in place over the region. Chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms still looks to return in the early morning hours tonight along the northern tier of counties with an approaching weak cold front. Hathaway && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT Sat Nov 3 2018/ DISCUSSION... 12Z AVIATION... No significant changes to the previous forecast. Stronger southerly winds expected today with gusts up to around 25 kts...decreasing by tonight. Timing and strength for SHRA/TSRA development ahead of a cold front between models continues off sync. At the moment, VCSH included for all TAF sites starting late tonight through early Sunday morning with probabilities for SHRA/TSRA. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT Sat Nov 3 2018/ DISCUSSION... Clear skies this morning across the area but still anticipate a little patchy fog in the southwest areas (unless the winds stay up) which they have so far this morning. GOES Total Precipitable Water imagery showing 0.4-0.5" across SETX and extending well offshore. High pressure over the Coastal Bend/Upper Texas Coastal Waters should slide eastward today and this will allow for a gradual increase in low level moisture on strengthening southerly flow throughout the day and by sunset may see PW creeping past 1.0" in the southwest and coastal counties as the recirculated air modifies. Cold front moving into the Panhandle early this morning and up into KS steadily push southeastward today and by midnight should be near or just through the DFW area. Guidance appears to be in pretty close agreement that the front should be through College Station and reaching the Huntsville to Columbus line around 7 am Sunday. PW ahead of the frontal boundary should climb to 1.4" or so and with limited instability prior to any heating. Showers and a few thunderstorms look reasonable with scattered or greater coverage across the north in the early morning on Sunday shifting southward into the Metro around 10 am and on to Galveston around 1 pm. The coverage of rain should be fairly widespread though not particularly heavy. Greater totals will probably be over the northeast areas of Southeast Texas. Houston area and southward amounts will probably run around 0.25" or less though an isolated 0.5" amount is possible. Noticeable cooling in the afternoon across the north but temperatures in the south along the coast may be slow to fall or may just hold steady in the 70-75 degree range through the afternoon hours. The cold front comes to a halt in the coastal waters and then comes back quickly Monday morning and temperatures rise back into the lower 80s across the area by afternoon with warm and gusty southwesterly flow. Next upper level trough swings through the Southern Plains Monday/Monday Night pushing another front through SETX on Tuesday morning. Capping will probably preclude rain over a large chunk of the area (western) with greater rain chances far east and southeast. Light on the QPF again with this system. Weak broad troughing over the Central US will lead to almost zonal flow over SETX Tue/Wed keeping things relatively mild then next system looks to be a sharper trough and deep enough to bring a round of storms to the area late Thursday/Friday. Ensemble guidance showing a huge diversity of solutions that far out and temperatures on Thursday/Friday are a low confidence affair at best. In general though temperatures this week will above normal. By Saturday expect temperatures back below normal thanks the trough passage and a ridge of high pressure plunging southward through Central TX. 45 MARINE... South winds are expected to strengthen today and result in slightly higher seas. Small Craft Exercise Caution is in effect for the nearshore and offshore waters for winds up to 20 knots through late tonight. Winds and seas will decrease on Sunday as a weak cold front moves into the waters. Onshore winds return and strengthen again on Monday ahead of the next cold front that should arrive Tuesday morning. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 78 59 70 58 81 / 0 70 40 0 10 Houston (IAH) 78 64 74 62 82 / 0 50 60 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 78 71 76 70 80 / 0 40 70 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Update...08