699 
FXUS62 KJAX 260115
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
915 PM EDT Thu Oct 25 2018

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OVERNITE...

.UPDATE...WSR-88D showing bands of mostly light rain with some 
embedded moderate rain slowing moving north and northeast to 
the north of a slow moving warm front across N cntl Fl. High-res 
models continue to indicate that as the warm front continues to 
move north overnite...convergence and lift will be maximized 
along both the Ne Fl and Se Ga coasts which could lead to locally
heavy rain there beginning after midnight and during the pre-dawn
hours Friday. Will keep highest pops there (categorical) tonight 
with slightly lower pops elsewhere where rain will not be as 
locally heavy. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible 
overnite near the coast with locally higher amounts possible. 
A cold front will approach the region Friday bringing a good
chance of showers and storms...some of which may be severe.  

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR ceilings will prevail overnight as light to 
moderate rainfall overspreads the terminals through 06Z. 
Periods of IFR conditions will be possible from around 03Z 
through around 09Z during periods of heavier downpours. 
Gusty surface winds near 15 knots will prevail at SGJ and
SSI, mainly from an easterly direction through around 09Z.
Surface winds will then veer to southeasterly and southerly
from around 09Z through 13Z, with surface speeds decreasing 
to 5-10 knots at the regional terminals. Southerly winds
will increase to 20-25 knots at 2000 feet towards 09Z.
South-southwesterly surface winds will then gradually 
increase after sunrise, with sustained speeds increasing to
near 15 knots, with frequent gusts to 25 knots, towards 15Z.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will then move quickly 
eastward across the terminals after 14Z through the mid
afternoon hours. Due to uncertainty in timing and coverage,
we inserted VCTS at each terminal for Friday afternoon.     

&&

.MARINE...Small Craft Advisory continues for the coastal waters 
for East winds 20-25 knots with higher gusts with seas 6-8 ft. 
Scattered to numerous showers overnite as a warm front lifts 
north across the waters. Winds will shift to the south late 
tonight then southwest on Friday as low pressure moves across 
Georgia and the warm front lifts north. A cold front from this 
system will cross the waters tomorrow afternoon and bring a chance
for a few strong thunderstorms. 

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents is anticipated for 
Friday.  

Coastal Flood: Onshore flow and lingering higher than normal astro
tides from full moon will push high tide cycle to elevated levels
along the coast through mid morning Friday although it still
appears levels will remain just below minor flooding. Strong
onshore flow combined with rough surf of 3-6 ft will allow for 
some minor beach erosion and will keep Coastal Flood Statement in 
effect through mid morning Friday. As winds veer to offshore on 
Friday...the concern for any erosion or flooding is expected to 
diminish after the high tide cycle on Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  62  80  56 /  30  60  50  20 
SSI  75  68  82  60 /  40  80  50  20 
JAX  78  67  84  59 /  60  70  50  20 
SGJ  78  69  83  62 /  60  80  50  20 
GNV  80  67  83  59 /  30  40  70  10 
OCF  82  68  85  62 /  30  30  70  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters 
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL 
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler 
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to 
     Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina 
     Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. 
     Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

PP/BN/MZ