699 FXUS62 KJAX 260115 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 915 PM EDT Thu Oct 25 2018 ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OVERNITE... .UPDATE...WSR-88D showing bands of mostly light rain with some embedded moderate rain slowing moving north and northeast to the north of a slow moving warm front across N cntl Fl. High-res models continue to indicate that as the warm front continues to move north overnite...convergence and lift will be maximized along both the Ne Fl and Se Ga coasts which could lead to locally heavy rain there beginning after midnight and during the pre-dawn hours Friday. Will keep highest pops there (categorical) tonight with slightly lower pops elsewhere where rain will not be as locally heavy. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible overnite near the coast with locally higher amounts possible. A cold front will approach the region Friday bringing a good chance of showers and storms...some of which may be severe. && .AVIATION...MVFR ceilings will prevail overnight as light to moderate rainfall overspreads the terminals through 06Z. Periods of IFR conditions will be possible from around 03Z through around 09Z during periods of heavier downpours. Gusty surface winds near 15 knots will prevail at SGJ and SSI, mainly from an easterly direction through around 09Z. Surface winds will then veer to southeasterly and southerly from around 09Z through 13Z, with surface speeds decreasing to 5-10 knots at the regional terminals. Southerly winds will increase to 20-25 knots at 2000 feet towards 09Z. South-southwesterly surface winds will then gradually increase after sunrise, with sustained speeds increasing to near 15 knots, with frequent gusts to 25 knots, towards 15Z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will then move quickly eastward across the terminals after 14Z through the mid afternoon hours. Due to uncertainty in timing and coverage, we inserted VCTS at each terminal for Friday afternoon. && .MARINE...Small Craft Advisory continues for the coastal waters for East winds 20-25 knots with higher gusts with seas 6-8 ft. Scattered to numerous showers overnite as a warm front lifts north across the waters. Winds will shift to the south late tonight then southwest on Friday as low pressure moves across Georgia and the warm front lifts north. A cold front from this system will cross the waters tomorrow afternoon and bring a chance for a few strong thunderstorms. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents is anticipated for Friday. Coastal Flood: Onshore flow and lingering higher than normal astro tides from full moon will push high tide cycle to elevated levels along the coast through mid morning Friday although it still appears levels will remain just below minor flooding. Strong onshore flow combined with rough surf of 3-6 ft will allow for some minor beach erosion and will keep Coastal Flood Statement in effect through mid morning Friday. As winds veer to offshore on Friday...the concern for any erosion or flooding is expected to diminish after the high tide cycle on Friday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 75 62 80 56 / 30 60 50 20 SSI 75 68 82 60 / 40 80 50 20 JAX 78 67 84 59 / 60 70 50 20 SGJ 78 69 83 62 / 60 80 50 20 GNV 80 67 83 59 / 30 40 70 10 OCF 82 68 85 62 / 30 30 70 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ PP/BN/MZ