819 
FXUS63 KIND 152234
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
634 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018 

Below normal temperatures will continue into next week across 
central Indiana. Other than chances for rain Friday with a front 
moving through, most areas will remain dry into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018 

Rain had pushed off to the southeast this afternoon. However, 
extensive cloud cover continued across the forecast area. Both low 
level clouds and high level clouds were moving across. 

The lower level clouds should gradually clear out from northwest to 
southeast this afternoon and evening. However, it looks like high 
clouds will move through from time to time. Will keep skies partly 
cloudy this evening, then allow for mostly clear skies overnight. 
Will have to keep watch though as some model data is showing high 
clouds increasing again overnight.

Winds will diminish overnight as well. The clearing skies and 
lighter winds will allow temperatures to fall into the lower and 
middle 30s across the entire area. Thus it looks like 32 degrees or 
below is likely across the northern 2/3 of the area. Will upgrade to 
a Freeze Warning there. Frost is still likely elsewhere, so will 
continue the Frost Advisory.

As mentioned above, there is some concern that cirrus may move in 
and this might help keep temperatures up a bit. Thus didn't go as 
cold as some models and went 32 or 31 most locations in the warning 
area. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018 

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization 
was accepted for most items.

Quiet weather can be expected throughout the short term. A cold 
front will move through on Tuesday night, but the front will have no 
moisture to work with. Thus no precipitation is expected. Otherwise 
high pressure will control the weather across the area.

With the dry atmosphere in place, mostly clear skies will be the 
rule through most of the short term. Some lake enhanced clouds may 
clip the northeastern forecast area on Wednesday with the 
reinforcing shot of cold air behind the front.

Below normal temperatures will persist through the short term with 
northwesterly flow dominating aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Sunday Night/...

Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Dry conditions will prevail early in the extended period with the
effects of high pressure still impacting the area. However, rain
chances will increase on Friday as moisture is drawn into the
forecast area ahead of the next upper wave and cold front. The
highest chances will be Friday afternoon as forcing strengthens
with that cold front. After that, rain chances will start to wane
for the remainder of the forecast period with only low chances 
across the northern counties on Saturday/Saturday night as central
Indiana gets wrapped up in a broad area of cyclonic flow due to a
low pressure system over northern Ontario. Meanwhile, temperatures
through the period will be unseasonably below normal with highs
generally in the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 160000Z TAFS/...
Issued at 633 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Lingering MVFR ceilings over southern Indiana have cleared the 
southern terminals. No significant cloud cover expected tonight.

Surface winds 300-320 degrees at 7-10 kts early this evening will
become light by 160600Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 5 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057.

Frost Advisory from 5 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for INZ060>065-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50 
NEAR TERM...50 
SHORT TERM...50 
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS