819 FXUS63 KIND 152234 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 634 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018 Below normal temperatures will continue into next week across central Indiana. Other than chances for rain Friday with a front moving through, most areas will remain dry into next week. && .NEAR TERM...(Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight) Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018 Rain had pushed off to the southeast this afternoon. However, extensive cloud cover continued across the forecast area. Both low level clouds and high level clouds were moving across. The lower level clouds should gradually clear out from northwest to southeast this afternoon and evening. However, it looks like high clouds will move through from time to time. Will keep skies partly cloudy this evening, then allow for mostly clear skies overnight. Will have to keep watch though as some model data is showing high clouds increasing again overnight. Winds will diminish overnight as well. The clearing skies and lighter winds will allow temperatures to fall into the lower and middle 30s across the entire area. Thus it looks like 32 degrees or below is likely across the northern 2/3 of the area. Will upgrade to a Freeze Warning there. Frost is still likely elsewhere, so will continue the Frost Advisory. As mentioned above, there is some concern that cirrus may move in and this might help keep temperatures up a bit. Thus didn't go as cold as some models and went 32 or 31 most locations in the warning area. && .SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018 Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was accepted for most items. Quiet weather can be expected throughout the short term. A cold front will move through on Tuesday night, but the front will have no moisture to work with. Thus no precipitation is expected. Otherwise high pressure will control the weather across the area. With the dry atmosphere in place, mostly clear skies will be the rule through most of the short term. Some lake enhanced clouds may clip the northeastern forecast area on Wednesday with the reinforcing shot of cold air behind the front. Below normal temperatures will persist through the short term with northwesterly flow dominating aloft. && .LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Sunday Night/... Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018 Dry conditions will prevail early in the extended period with the effects of high pressure still impacting the area. However, rain chances will increase on Friday as moisture is drawn into the forecast area ahead of the next upper wave and cold front. The highest chances will be Friday afternoon as forcing strengthens with that cold front. After that, rain chances will start to wane for the remainder of the forecast period with only low chances across the northern counties on Saturday/Saturday night as central Indiana gets wrapped up in a broad area of cyclonic flow due to a low pressure system over northern Ontario. Meanwhile, temperatures through the period will be unseasonably below normal with highs generally in the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 160000Z TAFS/... Issued at 633 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018 Lingering MVFR ceilings over southern Indiana have cleared the southern terminals. No significant cloud cover expected tonight. Surface winds 300-320 degrees at 7-10 kts early this evening will become light by 160600Z. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 5 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for INZ021-028>031- 035>049-051>057. Frost Advisory from 5 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for INZ060>065- 067>072. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....TDUD AVIATION...JAS