375 
FXUS61 KBGM 301503
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1103 AM EDT Sun Sep 30 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly cloudy skies along with cool temperatures are expected
this afternoon. Isolated showers are possible over central New 
York. The next chance for showers occurs late tonight into 
Monday along a warm front. A cold front sweeps through Tuesday 
and Tuesday night with more widespread showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM update...Isolated to scattered showers are occurring
across the twin tiers this morning with the activity expected 
to reach the western Catskills soon. By early afternoon this 
activity will slide east of the region with just isolated 
showers possible in the northern areas where overrunning is 
best. Highs will range from 55 to 60 in central New York and 60 
to 65 in northeast Pennsylvania where a few breaks of sunshine 
will occur.

650 am update...
Rain moving in across the srn tier this morning more robust than
previously anticipated. The rain is moving into a drier air mass
with a surface high directly overhead...so there should be some
dissipation of the rain through the next several hours as the
band slides to the east, but a couple hundredths of an inch are
not out of the question. Increased pops for this morning.
Otherwise the rest of the forecast appears to be on track at
this time.

415 am update...
Main concerns in the near term are focused on the areas of 
dense valley fog this morning, the increasing clouds today and 
the rain expected tonight into Monday...mainly across central 
NY. 

High pressure at the surface across the ern Great Lakes and 
Northeast this morning is allowing for mostly clear skies and
strong radiational cooling. Temperatures have fallen into the
upper 30s and lower to mid 40s across much of the region...with
some of the cooler locations in the valleys where cold air
drainage has induced a sharp temperature inversion in saturated
near surface conditions and widespread fog...locally dense with
visibilities less than a quarter mile. There is a lot of
uncertainty when the fog will mix out, mainly due to the onset
of a mid level deck of clouds currently moving in from the west.
The clouds may actually allow the fog to stick around longer
than expected, possibly past 9 am. 

The next system to impact the region will be associated with a
warm front currently situated across the Ohio Valley this
morning, and projected to lift to the north today...stall out
across the srn Great Lakes and slowly shift to the east tonight
and during the day Monday. Thicker cloud cover will move in from
the w/sw today, and may be saturated enough to spit out a few
sprinkles, mainly across central NY. Otherwise most of the area
should remain dry today...but slightly cooler with highs only
into the upper 50s/lower 60s in NY...and mid 60s in ne PA.

The e-w oriented front will lay out over wrn/central NY and east
over to New England later tonight and during the day Monday. The
potential for rain will be higher during this period, although
rainfall amts are still expected to be less than a quarter of an
inch. Deep available moisture is limited and so is the amt of
forced ascent. Temperatures on Monday will be even a few degrees
cooler with highs in the mid/upper 50s to the north around
Syracuse/Utica/Rome...in the lower to mid 60s across the srn
tier in NY...and in the upper 60s/lower 70s in ne PA. 

By Monday evening the front is expected to make a push to the
north and allow the rain showers to end from south to north. An
area of low pressure will begin to move in from the w/nw Monday
night and act to advect in warmer air in from the south. May see
temperatures warm gradually through the night into the lower
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Model guidance is in good agreement that a low pressure center 
and associated cold front will push through the area Tuesday 
into Tuesday evening. Our area will start out in the warm sector
of the above mentioned system Tuesday morning into the 
afternoon...with a breezy south wind 8-15 mph. Moderate amounts 
of instability and deep layer wind shear will set the stage for 
numerous showers and scattered t'storms to develop over the 
region Tuesday afternoon. MLCAPE values look to be around 
400-800 J/KG, with 0-6km shear around 40-50 kts. PWATs will rise
to around 1.5"...which should be enough for some of the 
showers/storms to produce brief heavy downpours. WPC has placed 
the central and northern portions of our CWA under a marginal 
risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday...this means there is a 
chance for some minor flooding issues such as ponding of water 
on roadways and other low lying areas. Otherwise, expect mostly 
cloudy skies, with mild temperatures in the lower to mid-70s 
Tuesday afternoon.

Showers linger into Tuesday evening/night as the front slowly moves 
off to the east. Upper level ridging builds in during the day 
Wednesday...and after some morning clouds/fog expect skies to become 
partly sunny. Temperatures start off in the 50s early Wednesday 
morning, rising into the upper 60s to lower 70s by afternoon.


Wednesday night should be dry and mild as the upper level ridge 
continues to build, shifting into New England. A warm southerly flow 
develop over central NY and NE PA out ahead of the next weather 
system. Lows only dip down into the mid-50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday looks to start off dry during the early morning hours, but 
yet another fast moving front approaches later in the morning west, 
spreading across the area during the afternoon and evening hours. 
With the warm temperatures (mid to upper 70s) and high dew points 
(mid-60s) expect moderate amounts of instability once again. The 
daytime heating and instability should allow for scattered 
thunderstorms to develop as the front pushes through. Went with 
likely PoPs across the northwest half of the CWA, where the front 
looks to be stronger. Latest model guidance indicates the front 
should weaken as it heads southeast of Binghamton...running into the 
upper level ridge, which will be well established over the Mid-
Atlantic. 

Thursday night through Saturday: Our forecast area remains on the 
northwestern periphery of the strong upper level ridge over the Mid-
Atlantic. This should make for generally dry weather much of the 
time...but weak waves may rotate through the area, bringing 
occasional periods of showers and/or t'storms. Have slight chance to 
chance Pops in the forecast to account for this. Highs Friday and 
Saturday will remain well above average, in the upper 60s to mid-
70s...with lows 55-60.

Early indications are that another weakening front tries to move 
into the upper level ridge Saturday night into next Sunday. This 
could increase the chance for showers and t'storms once 
again...especially over the central and NW portion of the area. 
Temperatures remain steady, back into the 70s. Still not seeing any 
real signs of cooler fall weather over the Eastern US through the 
next two weeks. CPC has 70-80 percent chance for above average 
temperatures in our area in the 6-10 day period....and 80 percent in 
the 8-14 day period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Robust valley fog will start to lift and mix into a low cloud
deck this morning as an overcast mid deck of clouds continues to
spread across the region. Low clouds at KELM my linger through
14Z. There may be scattered light rain showers/sprinkles
today...with the best chance around KELM and/or KITH this
morning. An approaching warm front from the west will trigger 
more showers after 00Z, mainly around KSYR and KRME. Low clouds 
and light fog may settle in around KELM and KBGM later 
tonight/Monday morning. 

Light and variable surface winds this morning, will become S-SE
at 5-8 kt with a few gusts to 15 kt late this morning and into
the afternoon. Winds return to the s/sw at 5 kt or less this
evening.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Restrictions possible at KSYR/KRME in light
showers.

Monday...VFR south and central terminals. Showers and 
associated restrictions possible toward KSYR and KRME.

Tuesday...Showers and isolated t'storms...associated 
restrictions possible.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Restrictions likely in showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT/RRM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BJT/MLJ