375 FXUS61 KBGM 301503 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1103 AM EDT Sun Sep 30 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly cloudy skies along with cool temperatures are expected this afternoon. Isolated showers are possible over central New York. The next chance for showers occurs late tonight into Monday along a warm front. A cold front sweeps through Tuesday and Tuesday night with more widespread showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 11 AM update...Isolated to scattered showers are occurring across the twin tiers this morning with the activity expected to reach the western Catskills soon. By early afternoon this activity will slide east of the region with just isolated showers possible in the northern areas where overrunning is best. Highs will range from 55 to 60 in central New York and 60 to 65 in northeast Pennsylvania where a few breaks of sunshine will occur. 650 am update... Rain moving in across the srn tier this morning more robust than previously anticipated. The rain is moving into a drier air mass with a surface high directly overhead...so there should be some dissipation of the rain through the next several hours as the band slides to the east, but a couple hundredths of an inch are not out of the question. Increased pops for this morning. Otherwise the rest of the forecast appears to be on track at this time. 415 am update... Main concerns in the near term are focused on the areas of dense valley fog this morning, the increasing clouds today and the rain expected tonight into Monday...mainly across central NY. High pressure at the surface across the ern Great Lakes and Northeast this morning is allowing for mostly clear skies and strong radiational cooling. Temperatures have fallen into the upper 30s and lower to mid 40s across much of the region...with some of the cooler locations in the valleys where cold air drainage has induced a sharp temperature inversion in saturated near surface conditions and widespread fog...locally dense with visibilities less than a quarter mile. There is a lot of uncertainty when the fog will mix out, mainly due to the onset of a mid level deck of clouds currently moving in from the west. The clouds may actually allow the fog to stick around longer than expected, possibly past 9 am. The next system to impact the region will be associated with a warm front currently situated across the Ohio Valley this morning, and projected to lift to the north today...stall out across the srn Great Lakes and slowly shift to the east tonight and during the day Monday. Thicker cloud cover will move in from the w/sw today, and may be saturated enough to spit out a few sprinkles, mainly across central NY. Otherwise most of the area should remain dry today...but slightly cooler with highs only into the upper 50s/lower 60s in NY...and mid 60s in ne PA. The e-w oriented front will lay out over wrn/central NY and east over to New England later tonight and during the day Monday. The potential for rain will be higher during this period, although rainfall amts are still expected to be less than a quarter of an inch. Deep available moisture is limited and so is the amt of forced ascent. Temperatures on Monday will be even a few degrees cooler with highs in the mid/upper 50s to the north around Syracuse/Utica/Rome...in the lower to mid 60s across the srn tier in NY...and in the upper 60s/lower 70s in ne PA. By Monday evening the front is expected to make a push to the north and allow the rain showers to end from south to north. An area of low pressure will begin to move in from the w/nw Monday night and act to advect in warmer air in from the south. May see temperatures warm gradually through the night into the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Model guidance is in good agreement that a low pressure center and associated cold front will push through the area Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Our area will start out in the warm sector of the above mentioned system Tuesday morning into the afternoon...with a breezy south wind 8-15 mph. Moderate amounts of instability and deep layer wind shear will set the stage for numerous showers and scattered t'storms to develop over the region Tuesday afternoon. MLCAPE values look to be around 400-800 J/KG, with 0-6km shear around 40-50 kts. PWATs will rise to around 1.5"...which should be enough for some of the showers/storms to produce brief heavy downpours. WPC has placed the central and northern portions of our CWA under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday...this means there is a chance for some minor flooding issues such as ponding of water on roadways and other low lying areas. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies, with mild temperatures in the lower to mid-70s Tuesday afternoon. Showers linger into Tuesday evening/night as the front slowly moves off to the east. Upper level ridging builds in during the day Wednesday...and after some morning clouds/fog expect skies to become partly sunny. Temperatures start off in the 50s early Wednesday morning, rising into the upper 60s to lower 70s by afternoon. Wednesday night should be dry and mild as the upper level ridge continues to build, shifting into New England. A warm southerly flow develop over central NY and NE PA out ahead of the next weather system. Lows only dip down into the mid-50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday looks to start off dry during the early morning hours, but yet another fast moving front approaches later in the morning west, spreading across the area during the afternoon and evening hours. With the warm temperatures (mid to upper 70s) and high dew points (mid-60s) expect moderate amounts of instability once again. The daytime heating and instability should allow for scattered thunderstorms to develop as the front pushes through. Went with likely PoPs across the northwest half of the CWA, where the front looks to be stronger. Latest model guidance indicates the front should weaken as it heads southeast of Binghamton...running into the upper level ridge, which will be well established over the Mid- Atlantic. Thursday night through Saturday: Our forecast area remains on the northwestern periphery of the strong upper level ridge over the Mid- Atlantic. This should make for generally dry weather much of the time...but weak waves may rotate through the area, bringing occasional periods of showers and/or t'storms. Have slight chance to chance Pops in the forecast to account for this. Highs Friday and Saturday will remain well above average, in the upper 60s to mid- 70s...with lows 55-60. Early indications are that another weakening front tries to move into the upper level ridge Saturday night into next Sunday. This could increase the chance for showers and t'storms once again...especially over the central and NW portion of the area. Temperatures remain steady, back into the 70s. Still not seeing any real signs of cooler fall weather over the Eastern US through the next two weeks. CPC has 70-80 percent chance for above average temperatures in our area in the 6-10 day period....and 80 percent in the 8-14 day period. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Robust valley fog will start to lift and mix into a low cloud deck this morning as an overcast mid deck of clouds continues to spread across the region. Low clouds at KELM my linger through 14Z. There may be scattered light rain showers/sprinkles today...with the best chance around KELM and/or KITH this morning. An approaching warm front from the west will trigger more showers after 00Z, mainly around KSYR and KRME. Low clouds and light fog may settle in around KELM and KBGM later tonight/Monday morning. Light and variable surface winds this morning, will become S-SE at 5-8 kt with a few gusts to 15 kt late this morning and into the afternoon. Winds return to the s/sw at 5 kt or less this evening. Outlook... Sunday night...Restrictions possible at KSYR/KRME in light showers. Monday...VFR south and central terminals. Showers and associated restrictions possible toward KSYR and KRME. Tuesday...Showers and isolated t'storms...associated restrictions possible. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday...Restrictions likely in showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT NEAR TERM...BJT/RRM SHORT TERM...MJM LONG TERM...MJM AVIATION...BJT/MLJ