195 
FXUS63 KDDC 300455
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1155 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018

...Updated Short Term Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday evening)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018

Fog and low stratus conditions along the I-70 corridor over night
with visibilities down to a quarter mile at times making for some
driving hazards early in the morning. Light drizzle and misty
conditions will be off and on for this area for the remainder of
the day clearing out by the evening time frame. This is due to a 
stationary boundary sitting to the south and being on the northern
cool side allowing for more of an easterly upslope flow. South of
this, clear skies and south winds will be the story over night 
and during the day. Morning low temperatures will range from the
mid 50s for northern counties to low and mid 60s for the southern
ones. Winds will gust up to 25-30 mph by mid morning as the
temperature inversion erodes and winds mix to the surface under a
fairly strong pressure gradient due to a deepening lee side trough
along the Colorado and Kansas state line. 

Afternoon high temperatures will be widely varied for the viewing
area with mid 60s along the I-70 corridor due to aforementioned
low clouds and drizzle like conditions for most of the day. Low
80s are expected across central portions of the CWA with upper 80s
along the Oklahoma border. Mostly clear skies through the evening
time frame and into the night time hours for Sunday. Winds will
diminish shortly after sunset as the gradient relaxes due to the
filling leeside trough and setting up a shallow temperature
inversion at the surface. Improving conditions for the I-70
corridor as high pressure starts to build in from the northwest
lifting and scattering out the low clouds to partly cloudy skies
over night. Overnight temperatures for Sunday night will range
from the mid 50s to low and mid 60s north to south once again with
pretty persistent forecasting expected. This will be the start of
a warming trend heading into the long term and for the start of
the new work week. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018

Reinforcing high pressure behind the front will cause the front to  
sink southward Monday morning. Once again, temperatures will be tricky
depending on where the front sets up. Took a 50/50 blend of fb and
NAM data, which resulted in shaving off a few degrees across the northern
zones for the high on Monday. The EC also shows a cooler solution to
the north, so temperatures will likely needed to be adjusted. Beyond
this, on Tuesday and into Wednesday, the warm sector lifts well to
the north. Fairly strong downslope SW flow is expected with highs well
above normal. This is particularly true on Wednesday, where widespread
90s looks fairly likely. It will be on the breezy side as well with
the southwest winds. Attention the turns to the end of the extended
period. The EC does show a fairly strong synoptic wave/front moving
through Friday and into Saturday. Showers and embedded thunderstorms
may be possible with this stronger system. Confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018

VFR conditions will prevail for DDC, GCK, and LBL under clear
skies and south winds 10-12kts through mid morning. These winds
will pick up after 15Z due to deepening lee side troughing
throughout the day and stronger low level winds mixing to the
surface as the temperature inversion erodes with daytime heating.
These winds will once again diminish after 01Z and sunset due to
nocturnal cooling capping winds aloft. At HYS, current foggy
conditions down to 1/2sm with upslope easterly winds and saturated
low levels. Ceilings are also down to 300 feet with 200 feet and a
1/4sm likely between 09-15Z advecting in from the Goodland area as
seen on the nighttime fog satellite slowly expanding eastward
along the I-70 corridor. Improving conditions after 15Z but with
light drizzle expected off and on for rest of the afternoon ending
by 00Z and lifting to VFR conditions by the end of the TAF period
all due to being on the northern cooler side of the stationary
boundary to the south. 


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  82  60  85 /   0   0   0  10 
GCK  57  69  56  78 /   0   0   0  10 
EHA  60  81  61  87 /   0   0   0  10 
LBL  61  84  63  87 /   0   0   0  10 
HYS  54  63  54  72 /  10  20  10  10 
P28  66  86  68  87 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ030-031.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lowe
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Lowe