195 FXUS63 KDDC 300455 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1155 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018 ...Updated Short Term Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday evening) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018 Fog and low stratus conditions along the I-70 corridor over night with visibilities down to a quarter mile at times making for some driving hazards early in the morning. Light drizzle and misty conditions will be off and on for this area for the remainder of the day clearing out by the evening time frame. This is due to a stationary boundary sitting to the south and being on the northern cool side allowing for more of an easterly upslope flow. South of this, clear skies and south winds will be the story over night and during the day. Morning low temperatures will range from the mid 50s for northern counties to low and mid 60s for the southern ones. Winds will gust up to 25-30 mph by mid morning as the temperature inversion erodes and winds mix to the surface under a fairly strong pressure gradient due to a deepening lee side trough along the Colorado and Kansas state line. Afternoon high temperatures will be widely varied for the viewing area with mid 60s along the I-70 corridor due to aforementioned low clouds and drizzle like conditions for most of the day. Low 80s are expected across central portions of the CWA with upper 80s along the Oklahoma border. Mostly clear skies through the evening time frame and into the night time hours for Sunday. Winds will diminish shortly after sunset as the gradient relaxes due to the filling leeside trough and setting up a shallow temperature inversion at the surface. Improving conditions for the I-70 corridor as high pressure starts to build in from the northwest lifting and scattering out the low clouds to partly cloudy skies over night. Overnight temperatures for Sunday night will range from the mid 50s to low and mid 60s north to south once again with pretty persistent forecasting expected. This will be the start of a warming trend heading into the long term and for the start of the new work week. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018 Reinforcing high pressure behind the front will cause the front to sink southward Monday morning. Once again, temperatures will be tricky depending on where the front sets up. Took a 50/50 blend of fb and NAM data, which resulted in shaving off a few degrees across the northern zones for the high on Monday. The EC also shows a cooler solution to the north, so temperatures will likely needed to be adjusted. Beyond this, on Tuesday and into Wednesday, the warm sector lifts well to the north. Fairly strong downslope SW flow is expected with highs well above normal. This is particularly true on Wednesday, where widespread 90s looks fairly likely. It will be on the breezy side as well with the southwest winds. Attention the turns to the end of the extended period. The EC does show a fairly strong synoptic wave/front moving through Friday and into Saturday. Showers and embedded thunderstorms may be possible with this stronger system. Confidence is low. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018 VFR conditions will prevail for DDC, GCK, and LBL under clear skies and south winds 10-12kts through mid morning. These winds will pick up after 15Z due to deepening lee side troughing throughout the day and stronger low level winds mixing to the surface as the temperature inversion erodes with daytime heating. These winds will once again diminish after 01Z and sunset due to nocturnal cooling capping winds aloft. At HYS, current foggy conditions down to 1/2sm with upslope easterly winds and saturated low levels. Ceilings are also down to 300 feet with 200 feet and a 1/4sm likely between 09-15Z advecting in from the Goodland area as seen on the nighttime fog satellite slowly expanding eastward along the I-70 corridor. Improving conditions after 15Z but with light drizzle expected off and on for rest of the afternoon ending by 00Z and lifting to VFR conditions by the end of the TAF period all due to being on the northern cooler side of the stationary boundary to the south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 62 82 60 85 / 0 0 0 10 GCK 57 69 56 78 / 0 0 0 10 EHA 60 81 61 87 / 0 0 0 10 LBL 61 84 63 87 / 0 0 0 10 HYS 54 63 54 72 / 10 20 10 10 P28 66 86 68 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ030-031. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lowe LONG TERM...Sugden AVIATION...Lowe