678 
FXUS63 KILX 281434
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
934 AM CDT Fri Sep 28 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 AM CDT Fri Sep 28 2018

Leading edge of the wind shift with the front has reached a
Bloomington to Jacksonville line, per 9 am observations. Clouds
continue to thicken up post-front, with radar mosaics showing
widespread showers across Iowa moving into northern Illinois.
Elsewhere, earlier dense fog in the southeast CWA has lifted, and
skies were mostly sunny south of I-72. 

Latest high-res models largely keep the rain to our north today,
and some adjustments to the grids were made to the southern 
extent. Temperatures across the northwest CWA will be falling into
the afternoon, while the central and southeast still gets into 
the 70s before the front arrives. 

Updated zones/grids have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Fri Sep 28 2018

08z/3am surface analysis shows a cold front extending from
southern Lake Michigan W/SW to Kansas...while a 1018mb high is
centered over the Ohio River Valley. Quite a bit of high 
cloudiness has developed immediately ahead of the front across the
northern KILX CWA: however, skies remain clear further south. In 
fact, with clear skies and calm winds under the ridge axis, fog is
beginning to develop south of the I-70 corridor. The visibility 
at KLWV has already dropped to 1/4 mile and all high-res model 
guidance suggests the fog will expand in coverage over the next 
few hours. Based on HRRR/NAMNest/GFSLamp consensus, issued a Dense
Fog Advisory for areas along/southeast of a Martinsville to Flora
line through 14z/9am. The fog will dissipate after sunrise, 
leaving behind mostly sunny skies across the central/southern CWA.
Meanwhile, the cold front will reach the I-55 corridor by 
midday...then will sag to near I-70 toward sunset. Models have 
been consistently showing a band of post-frontal precip developing
across Iowa this morning, then spreading eastward as the day 
progresses. This area of lift and light precip will remain mostly 
north of the area, but have decided to include low chance PoPs 
along/north of Minonk to Macomb line in case showers spread 
slightly further southward. High temperatures will range from the 
upper 50s northwest of the Illinois River around Galesburg...to 
the middle 70s south of I-70. The front will drop into southern 
Illinois tonight, as high pressure builds into central Illinois. 
Mid/high cloud cover will tend to keep temps from bottoming out 
across much of the area:however, skies will likely clear further 
north where overnight lows will dip into the upper 30s along/north
of a Minonk to Macomb line. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Fri Sep 28 2018

A mostly cloudy and cool day will be on tap for Saturday with high
temperatures remaining in the upper 50s and lower 60s across the
northern CWA. Further south, partial sunshine at times will help
boost highs into the upper 60s and lower 70s south of I-70. As the
frontal boundary begins to return northward, scattered showers
will develop across the W/NW during the afternoon...then will
become more numerous across the far N Saturday night.

As has been advertised for the past several model runs, it appears
the front will lift well to the north on Sunday...bringing an end
to the rain chances and marking the return of a more summerlike
airmass. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s
across the board. Even warmer conditions with temps in the lower
to middle 80s will be in store for Monday. After that, the general
trend for the coming week will be for a continuation of above
normal temperatures thanks to an upper level ridge building over
the southern CONUS. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may
develop within the unseasonably warm airmass as early as Tuesday
as a frontal boundary tries to sag southward: however, the
greatest chance for widespread rain will likely hold off until the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 655 AM CDT Fri Sep 28 2018

VFR conditions should prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. High
cirrus or AC is over the area this morning and based on current
satellite loops any lower type clouds should remain north of the
TAF sites through the period. Some SC/CU does begin to develop
across the area in association with the front that will be pushing
through the area today. These lower clouds will be arriving in the
afternoon and not last very long. Then cloud cover will return to
AC type clouds during the afternoon, followed by mostly clear
skies overnight toward early morning. Winds ahead of the front
will be light and mainly southwest, then become northwest once
fropa occurs, with speeds of 10-20kts possible. Some of the HiRes
models start to bring precip into west central IL around early
morning hours, but will hold off adding to any of TAFs for now,
thinking it wont arrive until after 12z tomorrow. 


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten