678 FXUS63 KILX 281434 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 934 AM CDT Fri Sep 28 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 934 AM CDT Fri Sep 28 2018 Leading edge of the wind shift with the front has reached a Bloomington to Jacksonville line, per 9 am observations. Clouds continue to thicken up post-front, with radar mosaics showing widespread showers across Iowa moving into northern Illinois. Elsewhere, earlier dense fog in the southeast CWA has lifted, and skies were mostly sunny south of I-72. Latest high-res models largely keep the rain to our north today, and some adjustments to the grids were made to the southern extent. Temperatures across the northwest CWA will be falling into the afternoon, while the central and southeast still gets into the 70s before the front arrives. Updated zones/grids have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Fri Sep 28 2018 08z/3am surface analysis shows a cold front extending from southern Lake Michigan W/SW to Kansas...while a 1018mb high is centered over the Ohio River Valley. Quite a bit of high cloudiness has developed immediately ahead of the front across the northern KILX CWA: however, skies remain clear further south. In fact, with clear skies and calm winds under the ridge axis, fog is beginning to develop south of the I-70 corridor. The visibility at KLWV has already dropped to 1/4 mile and all high-res model guidance suggests the fog will expand in coverage over the next few hours. Based on HRRR/NAMNest/GFSLamp consensus, issued a Dense Fog Advisory for areas along/southeast of a Martinsville to Flora line through 14z/9am. The fog will dissipate after sunrise, leaving behind mostly sunny skies across the central/southern CWA. Meanwhile, the cold front will reach the I-55 corridor by midday...then will sag to near I-70 toward sunset. Models have been consistently showing a band of post-frontal precip developing across Iowa this morning, then spreading eastward as the day progresses. This area of lift and light precip will remain mostly north of the area, but have decided to include low chance PoPs along/north of Minonk to Macomb line in case showers spread slightly further southward. High temperatures will range from the upper 50s northwest of the Illinois River around Galesburg...to the middle 70s south of I-70. The front will drop into southern Illinois tonight, as high pressure builds into central Illinois. Mid/high cloud cover will tend to keep temps from bottoming out across much of the area:however, skies will likely clear further north where overnight lows will dip into the upper 30s along/north of a Minonk to Macomb line. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Fri Sep 28 2018 A mostly cloudy and cool day will be on tap for Saturday with high temperatures remaining in the upper 50s and lower 60s across the northern CWA. Further south, partial sunshine at times will help boost highs into the upper 60s and lower 70s south of I-70. As the frontal boundary begins to return northward, scattered showers will develop across the W/NW during the afternoon...then will become more numerous across the far N Saturday night. As has been advertised for the past several model runs, it appears the front will lift well to the north on Sunday...bringing an end to the rain chances and marking the return of a more summerlike airmass. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s across the board. Even warmer conditions with temps in the lower to middle 80s will be in store for Monday. After that, the general trend for the coming week will be for a continuation of above normal temperatures thanks to an upper level ridge building over the southern CONUS. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop within the unseasonably warm airmass as early as Tuesday as a frontal boundary tries to sag southward: however, the greatest chance for widespread rain will likely hold off until the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 655 AM CDT Fri Sep 28 2018 VFR conditions should prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. High cirrus or AC is over the area this morning and based on current satellite loops any lower type clouds should remain north of the TAF sites through the period. Some SC/CU does begin to develop across the area in association with the front that will be pushing through the area today. These lower clouds will be arriving in the afternoon and not last very long. Then cloud cover will return to AC type clouds during the afternoon, followed by mostly clear skies overnight toward early morning. Winds ahead of the front will be light and mainly southwest, then become northwest once fropa occurs, with speeds of 10-20kts possible. Some of the HiRes models start to bring precip into west central IL around early morning hours, but will hold off adding to any of TAFs for now, thinking it wont arrive until after 12z tomorrow. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Auten