267 
FXUS63 KILX 081747
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1247 PM CDT Sat Sep 8 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1108 AM CDT Sat Sep 8 2018

Not much in the way of changes to the forecast this morning. Even
areas in the west where there are fewer returns, there are still
enough showers to warrant the pops. Going with guidance for the
cooler temperatures under the expansive cloud cover. Little in the
way of lightning out there, though the threat for an isolated
strike remains in some of the stronger updrafts closer to the low
center, currently over southern IL.   

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT Sat Sep 8 2018

Significant flash flood threat setting up across the I-70 corridor
today. WPC Day1 excessive rainfall outlook will be upgraded to a
high risk of flash flooding with the upcoming issuance. Tropical
moisture ramping up over the southeast CWA, with precipitable
water values around 2.1 inches on latest SPC mesoanalysis.
Lawrenceville airport recently measured 1.76 inches in a 6-hour
period, with guidance suggesting another 3-5 inches over the next
24 hours. Heaviest precip axis should be roughly along I-70, as
the remnant circulation of Gordon lifts into southern Illinois
today. Flash flood watch will continue in areas from about
Beardstown-Bloomington southward, but will be dropped further
north. By tonight, the precipitation will be diminishing across
the Illinois River valley, but categorical PoP's will remain place
over the eastern CWA.

With the extensive rain and stiff northeast wind flow, high
temperatures will generally be in the mid 60s, though the
southeast CWA will hold around 70 degrees much of the day. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT Sat Sep 8 2018

Remnant surface reflection of Gordon will reach Ohio Sunday
afternoon, while the upper trough tries to close off a low over
northern Indiana. Lingering showers will diminish from west to
east during the day. Temperatures will be warmest west of the
Illinois River, while the rain across the east keeps the mid 60s
in place there. After that, a rather quiet period is on tap 
through the week, as high pressure moves into the Midwest and 
temperatures return to normal by Wednesday. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Sep 8 2018
TAFS are IFR/MVFR in most locations throughout the forecast.
Models varying slightly on timing of cigs and category shifts, but
generally keeping shra throughout as well. Have tried to simplify
where possible, but generally not going to see VFR except possibly
PIA tonight and BMI and SPI by tomorrow morning. Remnants of TS
Gordon keeping the cigs low and persistent until the system moves
out to the NE later tonight.  

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ILZ043>046-052>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...HJS