267 FXUS63 KILX 081747 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1247 PM CDT Sat Sep 8 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1108 AM CDT Sat Sep 8 2018 Not much in the way of changes to the forecast this morning. Even areas in the west where there are fewer returns, there are still enough showers to warrant the pops. Going with guidance for the cooler temperatures under the expansive cloud cover. Little in the way of lightning out there, though the threat for an isolated strike remains in some of the stronger updrafts closer to the low center, currently over southern IL. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT Sat Sep 8 2018 Significant flash flood threat setting up across the I-70 corridor today. WPC Day1 excessive rainfall outlook will be upgraded to a high risk of flash flooding with the upcoming issuance. Tropical moisture ramping up over the southeast CWA, with precipitable water values around 2.1 inches on latest SPC mesoanalysis. Lawrenceville airport recently measured 1.76 inches in a 6-hour period, with guidance suggesting another 3-5 inches over the next 24 hours. Heaviest precip axis should be roughly along I-70, as the remnant circulation of Gordon lifts into southern Illinois today. Flash flood watch will continue in areas from about Beardstown-Bloomington southward, but will be dropped further north. By tonight, the precipitation will be diminishing across the Illinois River valley, but categorical PoP's will remain place over the eastern CWA. With the extensive rain and stiff northeast wind flow, high temperatures will generally be in the mid 60s, though the southeast CWA will hold around 70 degrees much of the day. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT Sat Sep 8 2018 Remnant surface reflection of Gordon will reach Ohio Sunday afternoon, while the upper trough tries to close off a low over northern Indiana. Lingering showers will diminish from west to east during the day. Temperatures will be warmest west of the Illinois River, while the rain across the east keeps the mid 60s in place there. After that, a rather quiet period is on tap through the week, as high pressure moves into the Midwest and temperatures return to normal by Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Sep 8 2018 TAFS are IFR/MVFR in most locations throughout the forecast. Models varying slightly on timing of cigs and category shifts, but generally keeping shra throughout as well. Have tried to simplify where possible, but generally not going to see VFR except possibly PIA tonight and BMI and SPI by tomorrow morning. Remnants of TS Gordon keeping the cigs low and persistent until the system moves out to the NE later tonight. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ILZ043>046-052>057- 061>063-066>068-071>073. && $$ UPDATE...HJS SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Geelhart AVIATION...HJS