987 
FXUS62 KMHX 010758
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
358 AM EDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area this weekend through
much of next week. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...Little change in the pattern today with
upper ridging and surface high pressure remaining centered off 
the mid-Atlantic coast while a trough of low pressure will 
persist to the west and a frontal boundary stalled across 
central VA. A moist and unstable airmass persists across the 
area with PW values around 1.5-1.75 inches and dewpoints in the
mid 70s. 

Latest KMHX radar imagery shows a cluster of thunderstorms that
have been nearly stationary over the past hour north of 
Goldsboro that extends into western Greene County. High res 
models not handing this storm well but generally expect it to 
gradually weaken over the next hour or two. Models are doing a 
better job with isolated to scattered showers across the coastal
waters that are clipping the OBX from Cape Lookout to Cape 
Hatteras. These showers are expected to dissipate around mid 
morning as the sea breeze develops. 

With moist low levels, patchy fog is has been developing across
some inland areas early this morning with localized 
visibilities less than a mile at times. The fog is expected to 
burn off fairly quickly after sunrise. 

Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to re-develop this 
afternoon with heating allowing CAPE to increase to around 
3000-3500 J/Kg. Storms are expected to develop along the sea 
breeze and lingering boundaries across the area, then propagate
inland through the afternoon. Storms are expected to remain 
below severe limits with very little shear present, generally 
less than 10 kt. Models are generally showing less coverage 
today than yesterday but given the pattern hasn't changed much, 
similar convective development is likely and continue to have
PoPs in the 20-30% range. 

Low level thicknesses only a few meters less than yesterday and
expect highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s inland to mid to upper 
80s along the coast. Heat index values expected around 95-100 
this afternoon. 


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Saturday...Models indicating convection dissipating
fairly quickly this evening with loss of heating and expect
generally dry conditions through the overnight, though cannot
rule out isolated showers or thunderstorms lingering through the
overnight as has been the case the past couple night. Confidence
is not high enough to warrant higher than 10% PoPs at this 
time. Patchy to areas of fog will be possible again late tonight
with calm winds and moist low levels. It will be another warm 
and muggy night with lows in the low/mid 70s inland and upper 
70s along the coast. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Upper ridging will continue to be the 
major weather feature over the Eastern US through next week. The
ridge will strengthen to over 2 SD above normal through mid 
next week then weaken slightly by next weekend while remaining 
over the Eastern US. A weak surface trough will be over the area
Sunday, then dissipate south of the area early next week. 
Surface high pressure will build over the area early through 
late next week. There will be generally a 20-30% chance of 
mainly diurnally driven showers or thunderstorms each day. 
Temperatures will continue very warm Sunday with highs inland 
around 90, then readings are forecast to be slightly cooler but 
still at or slightly above climatological norms with highs in 
the mid to upper 80s the remainder of the period due to low 
level easterly flow off the ocean. Overnight lows will run above
normal with temperatures in the 70s through the period.

Sunday-Friday...High pressure will build over the area through
the period with mainly diurnally driven afternoon/early evening
showers and thunderstorms each day. As the upper ridge weakens 
late in the period, chances for showers and thunderstorms should
improve by next weekend. It will remain humid through the 
period. 

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions expected through much
of the TAF period but will likely see patchy early morning fog 
this morning bringing periods of IFR/LIFR conditions. Could also
see a period of scattered to possibly broken MVFR cigs mid to 
late morning as the inversion lifts. Could also see period of
sub-VFR conditions with isolated to scattered thunderstorms 
this afternoon and evening. Patchy late night/early morning fog
possible again tonight. 

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...VFR conditions are expected through 
most of the period. There will be a chance for brief sub VFR 
conditions in isolated to scattered showers and tstms each 
afternoon/early evening along with periods of possible late 
night/early morning stratus/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...High pressure will continue to ridge 
into the waters through the short term bringing light winds. 
Pred S to SW winds less than 10 kt expected today, becoming S to
SE tonight. Seas will be around 2 ft all waters this morning 
but are expected to build to 3-4 ft across the northern waters 
this afternoon as swell generated off the Long Island/NJ coast 
propagates into the area. Seas build to 2-4 ft across the 
central waters and 2-3 ft southern waters this evening and 
overnight as the swells continue to propagate southward.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...Generally benign conditions, outside of
any isolated to scattered convective activity is expected over
the waters through at least mid next week. A weak trough of low
pressure will move slowly through the area Sunday and 
dissipate, then high pressure will build over the area from the 
north through late next week. Easterly flow mainly 10kt or less
is forecast through mid next week with 2-3 ft seas. 

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/SK