987 FXUS62 KMHX 010758 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 358 AM EDT Sat Sep 1 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area this weekend through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 330 AM Saturday...Little change in the pattern today with upper ridging and surface high pressure remaining centered off the mid-Atlantic coast while a trough of low pressure will persist to the west and a frontal boundary stalled across central VA. A moist and unstable airmass persists across the area with PW values around 1.5-1.75 inches and dewpoints in the mid 70s. Latest KMHX radar imagery shows a cluster of thunderstorms that have been nearly stationary over the past hour north of Goldsboro that extends into western Greene County. High res models not handing this storm well but generally expect it to gradually weaken over the next hour or two. Models are doing a better job with isolated to scattered showers across the coastal waters that are clipping the OBX from Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras. These showers are expected to dissipate around mid morning as the sea breeze develops. With moist low levels, patchy fog is has been developing across some inland areas early this morning with localized visibilities less than a mile at times. The fog is expected to burn off fairly quickly after sunrise. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to re-develop this afternoon with heating allowing CAPE to increase to around 3000-3500 J/Kg. Storms are expected to develop along the sea breeze and lingering boundaries across the area, then propagate inland through the afternoon. Storms are expected to remain below severe limits with very little shear present, generally less than 10 kt. Models are generally showing less coverage today than yesterday but given the pattern hasn't changed much, similar convective development is likely and continue to have PoPs in the 20-30% range. Low level thicknesses only a few meters less than yesterday and expect highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s inland to mid to upper 80s along the coast. Heat index values expected around 95-100 this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 345 AM Saturday...Models indicating convection dissipating fairly quickly this evening with loss of heating and expect generally dry conditions through the overnight, though cannot rule out isolated showers or thunderstorms lingering through the overnight as has been the case the past couple night. Confidence is not high enough to warrant higher than 10% PoPs at this time. Patchy to areas of fog will be possible again late tonight with calm winds and moist low levels. It will be another warm and muggy night with lows in the low/mid 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM Saturday...Upper ridging will continue to be the major weather feature over the Eastern US through next week. The ridge will strengthen to over 2 SD above normal through mid next week then weaken slightly by next weekend while remaining over the Eastern US. A weak surface trough will be over the area Sunday, then dissipate south of the area early next week. Surface high pressure will build over the area early through late next week. There will be generally a 20-30% chance of mainly diurnally driven showers or thunderstorms each day. Temperatures will continue very warm Sunday with highs inland around 90, then readings are forecast to be slightly cooler but still at or slightly above climatological norms with highs in the mid to upper 80s the remainder of the period due to low level easterly flow off the ocean. Overnight lows will run above normal with temperatures in the 70s through the period. Sunday-Friday...High pressure will build over the area through the period with mainly diurnally driven afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms each day. As the upper ridge weakens late in the period, chances for showers and thunderstorms should improve by next weekend. It will remain humid through the period. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 2 AM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions expected through much of the TAF period but will likely see patchy early morning fog this morning bringing periods of IFR/LIFR conditions. Could also see a period of scattered to possibly broken MVFR cigs mid to late morning as the inversion lifts. Could also see period of sub-VFR conditions with isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Patchy late night/early morning fog possible again tonight. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 300 AM Saturday...VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. There will be a chance for brief sub VFR conditions in isolated to scattered showers and tstms each afternoon/early evening along with periods of possible late night/early morning stratus/fog. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 315 AM Saturday...High pressure will continue to ridge into the waters through the short term bringing light winds. Pred S to SW winds less than 10 kt expected today, becoming S to SE tonight. Seas will be around 2 ft all waters this morning but are expected to build to 3-4 ft across the northern waters this afternoon as swell generated off the Long Island/NJ coast propagates into the area. Seas build to 2-4 ft across the central waters and 2-3 ft southern waters this evening and overnight as the swells continue to propagate southward. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 330 AM Saturday...Generally benign conditions, outside of any isolated to scattered convective activity is expected over the waters through at least mid next week. A weak trough of low pressure will move slowly through the area Sunday and dissipate, then high pressure will build over the area from the north through late next week. Easterly flow mainly 10kt or less is forecast through mid next week with 2-3 ft seas. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME/SK NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...JME AVIATION...JME/SK MARINE...JME/SK