016 
FXUS64 KMAF 242307
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
607 PM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue to impact the terminals this evening.
VFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorm activity. Other
than variable winds due to convection, winds will generally be 
out of the south to southeast. Winds are expected to briefly 
increase around 06z for much of the area then decrease a little 
before increasing slightly during the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 PM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...

Another hot day today across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas,
as high pressure and a thermal ridge have allowed temperatures 
to rise into the 90s for all but the higher terrain, with 
temperatures expected to climb at least a few more degrees this 
afternoon. A cumulus field has developed over the higher terrain 
of Southwest Texas this afternoon, with a few showers and 
thunderstorms popping up on radar over the Davis Mountains. 
Additional diurnally driven storms are expected through this 
afternoon and evening, though should remain isolated, with gusty 
wind, brief downpours, and lightning the primary threats. Storms 
will largely remain confined to the higher terrain and adjacent 
plains through this afternoon, though may drift eastward into 
this evening. 

The ridge that has dominated the weather across the area the past 
few days doesn't look to go anywhere anytime soon, despite a 
series of troughs moving out of the Pacific Northwest. None of 
these troughs are progged to be strong enough to dislodge the 
ridge completely, though the ridge axis will shift eastward 
through the weekend, allowing for height falls and slightly cooler
temperatures across the region. By early next week, the ridge 
will become elongated, stretching from the Desert Southwest all 
the way to the Mid-Atlantic. Guidance indicates a resurgence in 
the ridge over the Four Corners Region into West Texas by midweek,
though solutions differ thereafter with the GFS maintaining a 
strengthening ridge over the region, and the ECMWF indicating a 
deepening trough to the west, and a transition to southwesterly 
flow aloft as the pattern amplifies. Thus, have not made many 
changes to the going forecast, and have tempered PoPs down a bit 
in the extended as the continued presence of the ridge should 
limit available moisture. That said, high temperatures through the
next seven days look to remain above normal, with most locations 
seeing highs each afternoon in the 90s, with 100s through portions
of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys, and overnight lows in the 
60s and 70s. Diurnally driven storms will also remain possible 
most days, mainly in favored areas across the higher terrain and 
adjacent plains. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75  98  74  98 /  10   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                       72  97  71  97 /  20  10  10  10 
Dryden                         74  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton                  72  97  72  98 /  10   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass                 68  90  67  90 /  20  20  10  10 
Hobbs                          70  95  68  94 /  20  10   0   0 
Marfa                          61  91  59  92 /  10  10  10   0 
Midland Intl Airport           75  98  74  97 /  10   0   0   0 
Odessa                         74  97  73  97 /  10   0   0   0 
Wink                           74 100  73 100 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/