016 FXUS64 KMAF 242307 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 607 PM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018 .DISCUSSION... See 00z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... Thunderstorms will continue to impact the terminals this evening. VFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorm activity. Other than variable winds due to convection, winds will generally be out of the south to southeast. Winds are expected to briefly increase around 06z for much of the area then decrease a little before increasing slightly during the afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 PM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018/ DISCUSSION... Another hot day today across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, as high pressure and a thermal ridge have allowed temperatures to rise into the 90s for all but the higher terrain, with temperatures expected to climb at least a few more degrees this afternoon. A cumulus field has developed over the higher terrain of Southwest Texas this afternoon, with a few showers and thunderstorms popping up on radar over the Davis Mountains. Additional diurnally driven storms are expected through this afternoon and evening, though should remain isolated, with gusty wind, brief downpours, and lightning the primary threats. Storms will largely remain confined to the higher terrain and adjacent plains through this afternoon, though may drift eastward into this evening. The ridge that has dominated the weather across the area the past few days doesn't look to go anywhere anytime soon, despite a series of troughs moving out of the Pacific Northwest. None of these troughs are progged to be strong enough to dislodge the ridge completely, though the ridge axis will shift eastward through the weekend, allowing for height falls and slightly cooler temperatures across the region. By early next week, the ridge will become elongated, stretching from the Desert Southwest all the way to the Mid-Atlantic. Guidance indicates a resurgence in the ridge over the Four Corners Region into West Texas by midweek, though solutions differ thereafter with the GFS maintaining a strengthening ridge over the region, and the ECMWF indicating a deepening trough to the west, and a transition to southwesterly flow aloft as the pattern amplifies. Thus, have not made many changes to the going forecast, and have tempered PoPs down a bit in the extended as the continued presence of the ridge should limit available moisture. That said, high temperatures through the next seven days look to remain above normal, with most locations seeing highs each afternoon in the 90s, with 100s through portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys, and overnight lows in the 60s and 70s. Diurnally driven storms will also remain possible most days, mainly in favored areas across the higher terrain and adjacent plains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 75 98 74 98 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 72 97 71 97 / 20 10 10 10 Dryden 74 98 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 97 72 98 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 68 90 67 90 / 20 20 10 10 Hobbs 70 95 68 94 / 20 10 0 0 Marfa 61 91 59 92 / 10 10 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 75 98 74 97 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 74 97 73 97 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 74 100 73 100 / 10 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 99/99/