674 
FXUS64 KMAF 241118
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
618 AM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance... 

No major aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all terminals. Thunderstorms will be
possible later this afternoon and evening, mainly across the west,
but will not include mention in the TAFs attm due to isolated
nature of activity. Otherwise, southerly winds around 10-12kt 
today with elevated gusts at MAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...As of 3:30 AM CDT Friday...KMAF radar is showing
that the shower activity in the west is going the way of the
dinosaurs...slowly dying out. Unfortunately none of the 3 km CAM 
models such as the HRRR or the NAM Nest showed anything this early
morning. If its a choice between believing the radar or the 
models this morning I'll take KMAF radar for 200.

Well...summer obviously hasn't taken the calendar hint as highs
were all so close to the century mark at MAF...reaching 99. All
models from the 3 km CAM models...to the NAM12...to the GFS/ECMWF
keep the area in a summer-like pattern with a ridge stretching
across the southern tier of states from the Atlantic to the
Pacific. The westerlies look to be contained across the northern
tier of states. 

Not much change is in store for the CWA for the next seven days.
Temps will remain above normal for the next week...mainly in the 
mid to upper 90s across the Permian Basin with temps touching the
century mark in the Trans Pecos and along the Rio Grande. 
However...at this time it doesn't look like any high temperature 
records will be threatened (thank goodness for small favors). A 
combination of intense heating...low level upslope flow...and 
decent low level moisture will lead to isolated showers/ 
thunderstorms in the Davis...Guadalupe...and Sacramento Mtns each 
aftn into the nighttime hours. 

The closest that the Permian Basin will get to any convective 
activity could be this aftn as a very weak and subtle wave could 
gen up a few storms in the northern Permian basin and the middle 
of next week as a weak "cold" front tries to inch its way into the
CWA. However...at this time I wouldn't be going to Vegas to lay 
any bets on convection affecting the Midland/Odessa area.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    100  75  98  75 /  10   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                       98  72  97  72 /  10  20  10  10 
Dryden                        100  76 100  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton                  98  73  97  72 /  10  10   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass                 89  69  90  69 /  10  20  10  10 
Hobbs                          95  70  94  69 /  10  20  10   0 
Marfa                          91  61  91  61 /  10  10  10   0 
Midland Intl Airport           99  75  97  75 /  10  10   0   0 
Odessa                         98  75  97  74 /  10  10   0   0 
Wink                          100  75 100  74 /  10  10   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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