674 FXUS64 KMAF 241118 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 618 AM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF issuance... No major aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions expected to prevail at all terminals. Thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon and evening, mainly across the west, but will not include mention in the TAFs attm due to isolated nature of activity. Otherwise, southerly winds around 10-12kt today with elevated gusts at MAF. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018/ DISCUSSION...As of 3:30 AM CDT Friday...KMAF radar is showing that the shower activity in the west is going the way of the dinosaurs...slowly dying out. Unfortunately none of the 3 km CAM models such as the HRRR or the NAM Nest showed anything this early morning. If its a choice between believing the radar or the models this morning I'll take KMAF radar for 200. Well...summer obviously hasn't taken the calendar hint as highs were all so close to the century mark at MAF...reaching 99. All models from the 3 km CAM models...to the NAM12...to the GFS/ECMWF keep the area in a summer-like pattern with a ridge stretching across the southern tier of states from the Atlantic to the Pacific. The westerlies look to be contained across the northern tier of states. Not much change is in store for the CWA for the next seven days. Temps will remain above normal for the next week...mainly in the mid to upper 90s across the Permian Basin with temps touching the century mark in the Trans Pecos and along the Rio Grande. However...at this time it doesn't look like any high temperature records will be threatened (thank goodness for small favors). A combination of intense heating...low level upslope flow...and decent low level moisture will lead to isolated showers/ thunderstorms in the Davis...Guadalupe...and Sacramento Mtns each aftn into the nighttime hours. The closest that the Permian Basin will get to any convective activity could be this aftn as a very weak and subtle wave could gen up a few storms in the northern Permian basin and the middle of next week as a weak "cold" front tries to inch its way into the CWA. However...at this time I wouldn't be going to Vegas to lay any bets on convection affecting the Midland/Odessa area. Strobin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 100 75 98 75 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 98 72 97 72 / 10 20 10 10 Dryden 100 76 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 98 73 97 72 / 10 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 89 69 90 69 / 10 20 10 10 Hobbs 95 70 94 69 / 10 20 10 0 Marfa 91 61 91 61 / 10 10 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 99 75 97 75 / 10 10 0 0 Odessa 98 75 97 74 / 10 10 0 0 Wink 100 75 100 74 / 10 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 27/33