444 
FXUS62 KMHX 231856
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
256 PM EDT Thu Aug 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure over the Ohio Valley will remain in place
through much of the weekend. By early next week the high will 
extend into the region from the western Atlantic, while a trof 
of low pressure sets up over the middle of the state.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Thursday...Area of strong high pressure over the
Ohio Valley is providing a somewhat fall-like atmosphere across
eastern North Carolina at mid-afternoon. Dewpoints range from
the mid 50s north to mid 60s southern counties this afternoon.
This will lead to a very pleasant night for this time of year
with lows closely matching the current dewpoints with upper 50s
inland to upper 60s Outer Banks. N/NE winds should diminish
inland but may remain a bit breezy along the immediate coast as
a bit of a CAA surge works down the coast later this evening 
into the early overnight hours. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM Thursday...Another pleasant day in store for Friday
as dewpoints remain in the 60s area-wide and mostly sunny skies
push high temperatures into the low/mid 80s. Precipitable water
will start to edge back to over an inch late in the day and
this will lead to a few clouds along the coast. However, any
precipitation should remain well offshore. Remainder of the CWA
should be generally sunny for Friday. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 am Thu...Drier/cooler airmass will be in place over 
the region Friday night with below normal precip chances, then 
a typical summer weather pattern gradually returns with high 
pressure extending over the region from the Western Atlantic 
and Piedmont trough develops inland through mid-week. Precip 
chances continue to remain limited through next week.

Friday night...Sfc high pressure will gradually slide of the NE
coast late Friday night. Expect pleasant weather with mostly 
sunny skies and no precip in the forecast. Temps will be 
slightly cooler than normal, with highs in the low/mid 80s and 
overnight lows in the 60s inland to low 70s along the coast.

Saturday through mid next week...The center of the sfc high 
pressure will be off the NE coast as winds become ENE/E on 
Saturday. PWATs gradually increase and as a result, possible 
isolated showers or storms develop along the seabreeze. Then, 
typical summertime weather pattern redevelops Sunday and early 
next week with sfc high extending across the area from the 
Western Atlantic and Piedmont trough inland, but little to no 
forcing aloft. Precip chances continue to remain low, but an 
isolated shower or storm can not be ruled out each afternoon 
through mid-week. The main affect will be the return of summer 
heat and humidity values. Expect temperatures to gradually 
increase into the mid/upper 80s inland and low 80s coast 
Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will reach into the low 90s 
inland and low/mid 80s Mon-Thur.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Friday/...
As of 1245 PM Thursday...VFR conditions should prevail through
the TAF cycle with clear skies and low humidity. Breezy N/NE
winds this afternoon should subside to around 5 knots or less
tonight, but with a sufficient temperature/dewpoint spread, no
fog is expected tonight. 

Long Term /Fri Night through Tue/
As of 340 am Thu...VFR conditions will dominate the TAF period.
High pressure will influence the the weather over the region 
with little precip expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/
As of 245 PM Thursday...Breezy N/NE winds around 15 knots will
continue this evening. There will be a bit of a CAA surge
through late evening into the early overnight hours, with a few
gusts to 20 knots possible, but conditions should stay below SCA
criteria. Seas will continue at 3-5 feet overnight. Winds trend
down to generally 10-15 knots on Friday with seas 3-5 feet
central waters and 2-4 feet elsewhere for Friday. 

Long Term /Fri Night through Tue/ 
As of 340 am Thu...NE/E winds 10-15 kt Friday night and 
Saturday with seas 2-4 ft Friday night, subsiding to 2-3 ft 
Saturday. Winds will become light and variable Sunday 10 knots 
or less, then becoming southerly 5-10 knots Monday with seas 
around 2 ft Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM