984 
FXUS63 KILX 150844
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
344 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Low pressure area in northeast KS will slowly move across northern
MO today and then into the northern part of the CWA tonight. This
will bring showers and storms to the CWA today and tonight. Models
differ on amount of coverage, with some models showing more
widespread precip and other HiRes models showing more scattered in
some areas and more solid in others. What does appear semi-clear
is that one area should move across southeast IL this morning
connected with the low level jet and then more should develop
across the rest of the CWA for this afternoon, moving across the
area through this evening. The southeast third of the CWA has been
placed in a slight risk for excessive rainfall due to high PW
values around 2 inches and the likely slow movement of the storms.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible today in the east and
southeast parts of the CWA but since ground will be able to handle
it easily will not added in the grids. Afternoon temps are
expected to be below normal today given the extensive cloud cover
and precip. Expecting south winds of 10-15 mph today but becoming
light tonight as the low pressure area moves into the CWA. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

The low pressure area will be slow to move east Thursday so it,
along with the continued mid level trough, will continue to have 
an effect on the weather across the CWA. The chance of showers and
storms will continue Thurs and then Thurs night in the east and
southeast, though coverage may be more scattered in nature. 

A second mid level trough will rotate through the CWA Friday and
combine with a sfc front in the south to produce more showers and
storms across the area. The south part of the CWA will have the
greatest risk of precip due to the proximity of the sfc front.
After this trough, the chance of precip will diminish some but
still linger for Fri night and then in the southeast third of the
CWA for Sat. 

Will finally see a dry period Sat night and Sunday but the chance
of precip will return for the beginning of the week as another mid
level trough and associated sfc weather system moves across the
area for late Sunday night through Monday night. ECMWF is much
stronger with this system than the GFS but precip does appear
likely for Mon in some areas of the CWA. Dry weather appears
possible for Tuesday of next week. 

Afternoon temps through the extended will remain around normal
with overnight lows staying in the 60s most areas. Temps are
expected to cool again Mon and Tue in association with additional
cloud cover and precip.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Despite a stationary front draped across central IL, there remains
enough dry air in the mid-upper levels to preclude much in the way
of showers/storms ahead of the advancing upper level low. Weak
radar returns indicate a few sprinkles may be reaching the ground,
but did not include any VCSH or VCTS until later tonight when a
wave of forcing arrives from the SW. Instability later tonight 
will be marginal, but enough elevated instability may be present 
for a few storms to develop, especially west of I-55 and north of
I-72.

A wave of IFR clouds looks to arrive with the precip late tonight,
and remain across the area through the morning, before improving
to MVFR during the afternoon. have continued that trend in the 06z
TAFs.

The early morning wave of showers/storms should progress N of the
TAF sites by mid morning, with redevelopment expected Wed 
afternoon. No strong storms are expected at the TAF sites in 
terms of wind and hail, but very heavy rainfall will be possible. 

Winds look to remain southerly for the balance of the next 24
hours, with wind speeds prevailing at or below 10kt.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon