984 FXUS63 KILX 150844 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 344 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018 Low pressure area in northeast KS will slowly move across northern MO today and then into the northern part of the CWA tonight. This will bring showers and storms to the CWA today and tonight. Models differ on amount of coverage, with some models showing more widespread precip and other HiRes models showing more scattered in some areas and more solid in others. What does appear semi-clear is that one area should move across southeast IL this morning connected with the low level jet and then more should develop across the rest of the CWA for this afternoon, moving across the area through this evening. The southeast third of the CWA has been placed in a slight risk for excessive rainfall due to high PW values around 2 inches and the likely slow movement of the storms. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible today in the east and southeast parts of the CWA but since ground will be able to handle it easily will not added in the grids. Afternoon temps are expected to be below normal today given the extensive cloud cover and precip. Expecting south winds of 10-15 mph today but becoming light tonight as the low pressure area moves into the CWA. && .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018 The low pressure area will be slow to move east Thursday so it, along with the continued mid level trough, will continue to have an effect on the weather across the CWA. The chance of showers and storms will continue Thurs and then Thurs night in the east and southeast, though coverage may be more scattered in nature. A second mid level trough will rotate through the CWA Friday and combine with a sfc front in the south to produce more showers and storms across the area. The south part of the CWA will have the greatest risk of precip due to the proximity of the sfc front. After this trough, the chance of precip will diminish some but still linger for Fri night and then in the southeast third of the CWA for Sat. Will finally see a dry period Sat night and Sunday but the chance of precip will return for the beginning of the week as another mid level trough and associated sfc weather system moves across the area for late Sunday night through Monday night. ECMWF is much stronger with this system than the GFS but precip does appear likely for Mon in some areas of the CWA. Dry weather appears possible for Tuesday of next week. Afternoon temps through the extended will remain around normal with overnight lows staying in the 60s most areas. Temps are expected to cool again Mon and Tue in association with additional cloud cover and precip. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018 Despite a stationary front draped across central IL, there remains enough dry air in the mid-upper levels to preclude much in the way of showers/storms ahead of the advancing upper level low. Weak radar returns indicate a few sprinkles may be reaching the ground, but did not include any VCSH or VCTS until later tonight when a wave of forcing arrives from the SW. Instability later tonight will be marginal, but enough elevated instability may be present for a few storms to develop, especially west of I-55 and north of I-72. A wave of IFR clouds looks to arrive with the precip late tonight, and remain across the area through the morning, before improving to MVFR during the afternoon. have continued that trend in the 06z TAFs. The early morning wave of showers/storms should progress N of the TAF sites by mid morning, with redevelopment expected Wed afternoon. No strong storms are expected at the TAF sites in terms of wind and hail, but very heavy rainfall will be possible. Winds look to remain southerly for the balance of the next 24 hours, with wind speeds prevailing at or below 10kt. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Auten LONG TERM...Auten AVIATION...Shimon