586 
FXUS63 KTOP 112314
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
614 PM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018

High pressure aloft was building into the area with a mid level shear
axis drifting south into OK. An upper low circulation was located
near the NM/TX border and this is the circulation that will 
eventually drift northeast toward the area early next week. 
An impressive smoke plume was also evident from Canada south 
across the Upper Midwest into the Central Plains. 

At the sfc...weak ENE flow continues with afternoon dewpoints
gradually mixing down into the upper 50s to lower 60s most spots.
For tonight look for moclear skies and light or calm winds with
lows close to minimum afternoon dewpoints in the upper 50s to
middle 60s. 

Look for dry wx to continue Sun as the very amplified blocking 
pattern persists across the region with high pressure centered 
across IA and the broad area of low pressure across west TX. There
may be some mid or high cloud across southeast KS but conds will 
remain dry with highs again around avg.
 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018

Blocking finally breaks down by Monday with the upper low fcst to
drift northeast with southerly flow finally developing ahead of
the low. Scattered showers and t-storms should gradually move into
the area through the day however given lack of low level focus
expect precip to be scattered throughout the event into Tuesday so
although most spots should receive some precip amounts will vary
considerably.

Precip chcs will linger into Tues night and early Weds with a
brief break in the rain chcs before another wave drops southeast
in the progressive northwest flow aloft. This should bring at
least another shot at rain in the form of t-storms to the area
Thurs-Fri. The overall longwave pattern looks to take on a more
active northwest flow orientation later next week into next
weekend so additional t-storm chcs appear possible from time to
time. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018

VFR conditions should persist. Some cirrus evident on the 
southern horizon from precipitation in northern Oklahoma but 
little if any cloud expected through at least 18Z Sunday. 
Dewpoints mixing into the upper 50s to lower 60s in recent hours
should be comfortably below minimum temperatures tonight to keep 
BR formation in check. 

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...65