586 FXUS63 KTOP 112314 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 614 PM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018 High pressure aloft was building into the area with a mid level shear axis drifting south into OK. An upper low circulation was located near the NM/TX border and this is the circulation that will eventually drift northeast toward the area early next week. An impressive smoke plume was also evident from Canada south across the Upper Midwest into the Central Plains. At the sfc...weak ENE flow continues with afternoon dewpoints gradually mixing down into the upper 50s to lower 60s most spots. For tonight look for moclear skies and light or calm winds with lows close to minimum afternoon dewpoints in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Look for dry wx to continue Sun as the very amplified blocking pattern persists across the region with high pressure centered across IA and the broad area of low pressure across west TX. There may be some mid or high cloud across southeast KS but conds will remain dry with highs again around avg. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018 Blocking finally breaks down by Monday with the upper low fcst to drift northeast with southerly flow finally developing ahead of the low. Scattered showers and t-storms should gradually move into the area through the day however given lack of low level focus expect precip to be scattered throughout the event into Tuesday so although most spots should receive some precip amounts will vary considerably. Precip chcs will linger into Tues night and early Weds with a brief break in the rain chcs before another wave drops southeast in the progressive northwest flow aloft. This should bring at least another shot at rain in the form of t-storms to the area Thurs-Fri. The overall longwave pattern looks to take on a more active northwest flow orientation later next week into next weekend so additional t-storm chcs appear possible from time to time. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 614 PM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018 VFR conditions should persist. Some cirrus evident on the southern horizon from precipitation in northern Oklahoma but little if any cloud expected through at least 18Z Sunday. Dewpoints mixing into the upper 50s to lower 60s in recent hours should be comfortably below minimum temperatures tonight to keep BR formation in check. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Omitt LONG TERM...Omitt AVIATION...65