National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDCRP
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDCRP
Product Timestamp: 2018-08-07 23:26 UTC
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074 FXUS64 KCRP 072326 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 626 PM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018 .DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below for the 00Z TAFs. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF period. The exception will be early Wed morning due to brief light patchy fog and stratus, mainly from ALI to VCT. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the Coastal Bend Wed, thus included a PROB30 group for ALI, VCT and CRP. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 405 PM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday night)... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to impact portions of South Texas this afternoon. Convection should begin to diminish by early this evening with the loss of daytime heating and the presence of a slightly drier airmass. Mostly dry conditions will prevail overnight, but cannot rule out an streamer shower to move across. Again, showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop by daybreak on Wednesday, with the approach of an inverted trough to our coast from the east along with sufficient moisture (PWATs 1.9-2.0 range). Temperatures will remain near normal values for the next few days. LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Anticipate isolated/scattered convection Thursday over the ERN CWA/MSA due to the combination of a weak upper trough/weakness in the 500-mb heights and sufficient moisture (The GFS ensemble mean QPF adds credence.) The GFS predicts PWAT values below normal Friday (slight increase in upper heights per GFS ensemble mean) and anticipate very limited convection activity which would be confined to portions of the MSA. The GFS deterministic predicts above normal PWAT values for Saturday, yet below normal Sunday/Monday. Will forecast isolated/scattered convection for Saturday over the ERN CWA/MSA (GFS ensemble mean QPF adds credence.) Not too confident with regard to convection Sunday/Monday, yet will maintain 20 POP owing to uncertainty regarding moisture (Although GFS deterministic predicts PWAT values below normal over the CWA Sunday/Monday, no significant change in the synoptic pattern per the GFS ensemble mean to warrant drying. Further, the GFS ensemble mean QPF depicts limited precipitation over surrounding locations.) The GFS deterministic predicts above normal PWAT values for Tuesday and will forecast isolated convection. Maximum Heat Index values 105-109F possible during the Thursday through Saturday period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 91 76 93 77 / 10 30 10 20 10 Victoria 75 95 75 94 76 / 10 30 10 30 10 Laredo 77 102 78 102 78 / 10 10 10 10 10 Alice 75 95 74 97 75 / 10 30 10 20 10 Rockport 80 89 81 90 81 / 20 30 20 20 10 Cotulla 75 100 76 101 75 / 10 10 10 10 10 Kingsville 76 96 76 97 76 / 10 30 10 20 10 Navy Corpus 81 88 81 90 81 / 20 30 10 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ TE/81...AVIATION