074 
FXUS64 KCRP 072326
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
626 PM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF period. The
exception will be early Wed morning due to brief light patchy fog
and stratus, mainly from ALI to VCT. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible across the Coastal Bend Wed, 
thus included a PROB30 group for ALI, VCT and CRP.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 405 PM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018/ 

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday night)...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to
impact portions of South Texas this afternoon. Convection should
begin to diminish by early this evening with the loss of daytime 
heating and the presence of a slightly drier airmass. Mostly dry
conditions will prevail overnight, but cannot rule out an 
streamer shower to move across. Again, showers and thunderstorms 
are expected to redevelop by daybreak on Wednesday, with the 
approach of an inverted trough to our coast from the east along 
with sufficient moisture (PWATs 1.9-2.0 range). Temperatures will
remain near normal values for the next few days. 

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

Anticipate isolated/scattered convection Thursday over the ERN 
CWA/MSA due to the combination of a weak upper trough/weakness in 
the 500-mb heights and sufficient moisture (The GFS ensemble mean 
QPF adds credence.) The GFS predicts PWAT values below normal Friday 
(slight increase in upper heights per GFS ensemble mean) and 
anticipate very limited convection activity which would be confined 
to portions of the MSA. The GFS deterministic predicts above normal 
PWAT values for Saturday, yet below normal Sunday/Monday. Will 
forecast isolated/scattered convection for Saturday over the ERN 
CWA/MSA (GFS ensemble mean QPF adds credence.) Not too confident 
with regard to convection Sunday/Monday, yet will maintain 20 POP 
owing to uncertainty regarding moisture (Although GFS deterministic 
predicts PWAT values below normal over the CWA Sunday/Monday, no 
significant change in the synoptic pattern per the GFS ensemble 
mean to warrant drying. Further, the GFS ensemble mean QPF depicts
limited precipitation over surrounding locations.) The GFS 
deterministic predicts above normal PWAT values for Tuesday and 
will forecast isolated convection. Maximum Heat Index values 
105-109F possible during the Thursday through Saturday period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  91  76  93  77  /  10  30  10  20  10 
Victoria          75  95  75  94  76  /  10  30  10  30  10 
Laredo            77 102  78 102  78  /  10  10  10  10  10 
Alice             75  95  74  97  75  /  10  30  10  20  10 
Rockport          80  89  81  90  81  /  20  30  20  20  10 
Cotulla           75 100  76 101  75  /  10  10  10  10  10 
Kingsville        76  96  76  97  76  /  10  30  10  20  10 
Navy Corpus       81  88  81  90  81  /  20  30  10  20  10 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION