984 
FXUS62 KMHX 220614
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
214 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain in between high pressure offshore and low
pressure to the west and southwest through midweek. Associated  
warm and moist southerly flow will produce above normal chances 
for showers and thunderstorms. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1005 pm Saturday...Scattered convection approaching from 
the west. Kept slight chance in the northeast counties with 
chance elsewhere. No change to overnight lows.

Prev disc...Differences exist later tonight amongst the HRRR, 
NSSL- WRF and 3km NAM with regards to precipitation development 
as the NSSL- WRF shows a band of convection moving through the 
region closer to midnight, while the HRRR and NAM12 show any 
activity holding off until early Sunday morning. Likely trigger 
will be a shortwave crossing Kentucky that has become 
convectively active over the past hour or so. Given the 
uncertainty in the precipitation timing, have lowered PoPs from 
likely to high chance from after 03z through the overnight 
hours. With a record-breaking precipitable water of 2.46 inches 
from this morning's 12Z MHX sounding, any convection has the 
potential to quickly produce heavy rainfall and localized 
flooding. Low temperatures tonight should be in the low to mid 
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 350 PM Saturday...After any initial precipitation in the
morning, Sunday afternoon again looks convectively active with
deep southerly flow around high pressure offshore with surface
trough lingering inland over the Piedmont of North Carolina with
mid-level low parked over the Southeastern United States.
Following the trends from both the GFS/ECMWF, PoPs go from high
chance during the morning to likely during the afternoon. With
high precipitable water values, heavy downpours are possible and
eastern NC is in a "Marginal" threat of excessive rainfall for
Sunday. The deep moisture and widespread cloudiness should
reduce the threat for any severe convection Sunday. High
temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...A warm and moist southerly flow will 
continue Sunday Night through next week due to low pressure to 
the west and high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean, 
leading to unsettled weather conditions from through much of 
next week.

Sunday Night through Wednesday...Deep, warm, and moist 
southerly flow will continue behind a departing low pressure 
system Sunday night and will persist through much of the 
upcoming week between broad low pressure aloft to the west and 
western Atlantic high pressure. This pattern is conducive for 
widespread showers and thunderstorms, most widespread during 
peak heating with a persistent mid level trough over the eastern
US. Timing for the highest chances of rain is roughly Monday 
afternoon through Wednesday when channeled vorticity sets up 
over Eastern NC with an elongated axis of very high PWATs 
stretching from the tropical western Atlantic Ocean. Given 
persistence amongst guidance over the past several runs, have 
increased PoPs slightly during this time frame, with the 
potential for 2 to 6 inches of rainfall, highest closer to the 
coast. Will continue to highlight severe/flood potential in HWO.

Thursday and Friday...The persistent upper trough to our west
finally fills and shifts northeast from the Deep South states 
towards the Mid-Atlantic, with high pressure continuing
offshore. Moist southwesterly flow will be present both days
with convection more diurnally focused. 

Temps Sunday Night through Friday will be close to 
climatological normals, ranging from highs in the upper 80s 
inland to mid 80s for the coast. Minimum temps will range from 
the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through 06Z Sunday/... 
As of 200 AM Sunday...Current VFR all sites expected to prevail
most of the night but a TEMPO period of IFR stratus just below
1K ft also likely for sites west of KEWN mainly 08Z-12Z. Mid-
level dry slot currently keeping precip west and east of area
will continue rest of night, then deepening southerly flow and
moisture expected to produce scattered to broken coverage of
convective activity afternoon into evening with brief periods of
sub-VFR possible. Southerly winds will gust up to 20 KT this
afternoon. 

Long Term /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...Periodic Sub-VFR conditions are 
expected through Wednesday as an unsettled pattern develops 
across Eastern NC. Southerly flow will continue Sunday night and
will last through next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Sunday/... 
As of 1005 pm Saturday...Current marine zones still look good. 
No changes needed late this evening. Gusty southwest winds will 
continue overnight with rough seas persisting through the 
evening before subsiding somewhat after midnight. While 
conditions may subside for several hours late tonight and early 
Sunday, have extended the Small Craft Advisory from tonight 
through later this week, and wind and seas quickly increase 
again by late morning to midday on Sunday. With high pressure 
offshore and a surface trough over the Piedmont of North 
Carolina remaining in place for much of the next several days, 
gusty southerly winds and rough seas will continue. Did extend 
the SCA for the Pamlico Sound until 5 AM Sunday morning, but 
conditions there should subside below SCA status for at least a 
day or so. 

Long Term /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...Low end SCA conditions are expected 
over the waters for much of the period. Sunday Night through 
Wednesday, moderate S/SW winds 10-20 kt develop between low 
pressure well west of the waters and high pressure across the 
western Atlantic Ocean, producing 4 to 6 ft seas, highest for 
the outer fringes of the coastal waters. While boating 
conditions will be poor for most of the period, conditions will 
be exacerbated by a prolonged period of showers and 
thunderstorms from approximately Monday afternoon through 
Wednesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for 
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/HSA
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/JBM/HSA/MS
MARINE...DAG/CTC/HSA